The Villanova Wildcats take on the Marquette Golden Eagles in Milwaukee, WI. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on FS1.
Marquette is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 142.5 points.
Here are my Villanova vs. Marquette predictions and college basketball picks for January 24, 2025.
Villanova vs Marquette Prediction
My Pick: Over 142.5 (Play to 143)
My Villanova vs Marquette best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Villanova vs Marquette Odds, Spread, Pick
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 142.5 -112 / -108 | +380 |
| Marquette Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 142.5 -112 / -108 | -500 |
- Villanova vs Marquette spread: Marquette -9.5
- Villanova vs Marquette over/under: 142.5 points
- Villanova vs Marquette moneyline: Marquette -500, Villanova +380
- Villanova vs Marquette best bet: Over 142.5 (Play to 143)
My Villanova vs Marquette College Basketball Betting Preview
Kyle Neptune is dangerously close to getting canned. A late-game collapse at home against Georgetown is the type of loss that gets you left out of the Field of 68.
Marquette stumbled at home against Xavier, but the Golden Eagles are still 7-1 in Big East play and on pace for a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Stopping Marqutte is about stopping Shaka Smart’s inventive spread pick-and-roll offense, led by Wooden Award candidate Kam Jones. It’s critical to stop the dribble while effectively denying catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Villanova can do neither. The Wildcats’ ball-screen coverage has been abhorrent this year (1.04 PPP allowed, first percentile, per Synergy), and their compact defensive scheme allows plenty of triples (41% 3-point rate allowed, 248th nationally, per KenPom).
The Wildcats also run a perimeter-oriented, ball-screen-centric offense. But they mainly play through superstar Eric Dixon on the interior, as the offense is built around getting the three-level scoring big the ball at every opportunity.
I think Ben Gold can handle him. Gold has been an elite defender against opposing roll-men (.30 PPP allowed, 97th percentile, per Synergy) and an above-average defender against opposing post-up sets (.77 PPP allowed, 64th percentile, per Synergy) and in isolation (.67 PPP allowed, 63rd percentile, per Synergy).
That said, better defenders have tried and failed against Dixon.
Coach Smart runs a press-happy defense that aggressively denies the dribble while forcing turnovers. But Villanova can handle the press (.98 PPP, 75th percentile, per Synergy) and is a rock-solid ball-handling squad (13% turnover rate in conference play, second in the Big East, per KenPom).
Of similar importance, the Golden Eagles’ aggressive defense will also allow open weak-side jumpers (42% 3-point rate allowed in conference play, ninth in the Big East, per KenPom), and that’s imperative for Villanova’s perimeter-oriented offense (44% 3-point rate, 69th nationally, per KenPom).
So, I’m partial to believing we’ll see a higher-scoring game.
The total opened at 142 for Friday’s affair, and I think that number’s a tad low, given I make it closer to 145.
I’m a little worried about the projected pace, especially because Villanova is a snail. But Marquette is always looking to push the tempo, and I expect efficient half-court offense regardless.
