The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, FL. Tip-off is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Florida is favored by 17 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. The total is set at 132.5 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Florida predictions and college basketball picks for December 4, 2024.
Virginia vs Florida Prediction
My Pick: Over 132
My Virginia vs Florida best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Virginia vs Florida Odds, Lines, Pick
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 133 -110 / -110 | +1000 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 133 -110 / -110 | -2000 |
- Virginia vs Florida spread: Florida -17
- Virginia vs Florida over/under: 133 points
- Virginia vs Florida moneyline: Florida -2000, Virginia +1000
- Virginia vs Florida best bet: Over 132
My Virginia vs Florida College Basketball Betting Preview
Virginia Basketball
Tony Bennett’s abrupt decision to quit as head coach left Virginia in a lurch. Expectations for the Cavaliers cratered, especially with likely starter Jalen Warley entering the transfer portal.
To this point, Virginia has been acceptable if not convincing. A neutral site win over Villanova in a “disappointment bowl” kept the Cavs’ heads above water, but their two other key matchups in the Bahamas did not go well.
Tennessee and St. John’s destroyed Virginia by a combined 47 points; UVA managed just 97 total points in those two contests.
The offense is the giant red flag. Despite ranking 24th in the entire country in 3-point percentage, Virginia sits at a dismal 176th in KenPom’s offensive rating metric.
Virginia gets essentially zero easy points: no offensive rebounds, very few trips to the free throw line, and despite the coaching change, the Cavs are still one of the slowest teams in the country. Transition points do not exist.
Isaac McKneely has remained a lethal weapon from the perimeter, having buried 21-of-42 triples so far this year. He’s a terrific fit in the mover/blocker scheme thanks to his ability to fire away off movement.
Both Dai Dai Ames and Andrew Rohde are also hitting 50%, a surprising development given their track records. And freshman Jacob Cofie has given the Cavs a high-upside talent in the frontcourt.
Cofie and Blake Buchanan have anchored a half-court defense that, while not a peak UVA unit, has made life difficult on opponents.
Similar to the Cavaliers’ own offense, their defensive shell prevents layups and fouls. To score efficiently against Virginia, you have to shoot well over the top.
Florida Basketball
What a start for the Gators. Florida has reeled off eight wins to start the season, each by at least 13 points. That has helped it rise to an elite stratosphere analytically (No. 8 per KenPom, No. 11 per Bart Torvik, No. 10 per EvanMiya).
The season has not been without controversy, but it seems that has only made Florida stronger.
Todd Golden’s squad has done it on both ends of the floor. The roster construction was very intentional: a stable of four athletic big men that can rotate and bombard the glass, paired with four guards who can all handle the ball or launch from deep.
Unsurprisingly due to the jumbo frontcourt, Florida ranks sixth nationally in offensive rebound rate, and the Gators’ interior defense (12th in 2-point percentage) is among the best in the country.
The most impressive part of Florida’s torrid start is that it has not really made shots. Will Richard has bricked his way to 24.4% shooting from downtown; he entered the season a 35% career shooter.
Even Walter Clayton Jr. began the campaign in a slump, though a 9-of-22 showing in two games in Florida’s MTE indicates he may be emerging from that sluggish start.
Alijah Martin has been a massive part of Florida’s season-opening surge. The FAU transfer is a glove of a perimeter defender, swallowing up the opposition’s best perimeter threat on a nightly basis.
Wake Forest’s Hunter Sallis went 5-of-17 from the field with zero assists and four turnovers, while Wichita State’s Justin Hill managed a paltry four points on 2-of-12 shooting. Martin has a lot to do with that.
At the same time, the burly wing has also been a hyper-efficient offensive weapon.
Virginia vs. Florida Betting Analysis
Florida may have a lot of new faces on the roster, but Clayton, Richard and the coaching staff surely recall a disappointing 73-70 loss to Virginia last November.
Golden will undoubtedly use that defeat as motivation for this one – and considering this version of Florida is better, while Virginia is clearly worse, that could lead to a blowout.
I have a hard time laying 16 in a game that Florida may struggle to inject tempo, though.
The Gators will certainly try, though, running opportunistically to beat the disciplined Virginia defense down the floor. I also think the Gators can score somewhat efficiently. Virginia’s conservative style has actually struggled to keep foes off the glass at times, which is a huge edge for Florida.
Plus, Virginia forces a ton of 3-pointers, and Florida has some beneficial regression coming. Per Shot Quality, the Gators are expected to see a 3.8% increase in their 3-point percentage over the long run based on the shots they have generated.
Virginia will need to do its part, though the implied team total of 58 points is not a Herculean task. As usual, the Cavs will be reliant on jumpers, but Florida’s defense is vulnerable to regression itself. Opponents have only made 29.2% of their triples, likely an unsustainable number.
I make this total a touch above 136 points. Thus, I would bet this up to 135.
