The Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. The total is set at 144 points.
Here are my Wake Forest vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 3, 2025.
Wake Forest vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -20.5
My Wake Forest vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wake Forest vs Duke Odds, Spread, Pick
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | +1600 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | -5000 |
- Wake Forest vs Duke spread: Duke -19.5
- Wake Forest vs Duke over/under: 144 points
- Wake Forest vs Duke moneyline: Duke -5000, Wake Forest +1600
- Wake Forest vs Duke best bet: Duke -20.5
My Wake Forest vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Wake Forest almost took upset Duke back in late January, leading by six with under nine minutes left in Winston-Salem.
That said, the Blue Devils were rolling in that game, jumping to a 15-point lead in the first half. But they melted it away because they missed their first 13 shots of the second half, eventually grinding through a 1-for-18 stretch.
Without that anomalous poor shooting stretch, Duke likely rolls in that game.
Barring any disasters in the rematch, I’m banking on Duke rolling.
The schematic matchup is too harsh for Wake.
Duke has the nation’s best defense. The Devils are filled with lengthy, versatile defenders at all five positions, and they’re dominant at the rim behind Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach.
The only way to beat Duke is to stretch the Blue Devils horizontally with off-ball screening and dribble handoff actions and then beat them over the top.
Unfortunately for Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons are the worst spacing-and-shooting squad in the ACC. They’re shooting 31% from deep in conference play and rank last in the ACC in 3-point rate (30%, per KenPom).
The Deacons score almost exclusively off the bounce and through post feeds, and you can’t do that against Duke’s dominant switching interior defense. They scored 56 points in the first head-to-head matchup, and I expect a similar output in the rematch.
On the other end of the court, Duke’s motion-based offense is predicated on off-ball stagger screen sets to pop open shooters into space.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is the league’s most compact interior defense (47% 3-point rate allowed, per KenPom) and struggles to defend off-ball screening sets (.96 PPP allowed, 38th percentile, per Synergy).
The Deacons are a tough interior defense, but center Efton Reid III struggles to defend out in space, so you can move them around and exploit their weak rotations.
Thus, Duke should easily rip through Wake Forest’s defense, as long as the Blue Devils don’t shoot 9-for-32 (28%) from 3 again because of a ridiculous 10-minute shooting slump.
I expect a more focused effort from the Blue Devils on their home court after almost blowing the first matchup, and the two-way schematic matchup points toward a Duke blowout.
Give me the Blue Devils.
