The Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, KY. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Louisville is favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 144 points.
Here are my Wake Forest vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for January 28, 2025.
Wake Forest vs Louisville Prediction
My Pick: Wake Forest +8.5 (Play to +6.5)
My Wake Forest vs Louisville best bet is on the Demon Deacons spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wake Forest vs Louisville Odds, Lines
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | +325 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | -425 |
- Wake Forest vs Louisville spread: Louisville -9
- Wake Forest vs Louisville over/under: 144 points
- Wake Forest vs Louisville moneyline: Louisville -425, Wake Forest +325
- Wake Forest vs Louisville best bet: Wake Forest +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
My Wake Forest vs Louisville NCAAB Betting Preview
Wake Forest Basketball
All great streaks must come to an end. That was the story in Winston-Salem on Saturday, as top-three ranked Duke took an axe to Wake Forest's six-game winning streak.
Still, Wake Forest enters play with a stout 15-5 overall record, including 7-2 in the ACC.
That loss to Duke perfectly illustrated Wake Forest's strengths and weaknesses. The Demon Deacons have one of the best defenses in the ACC (21st in KenPom's defensive efficiency), which is why Wake even has a remote chance at making the NCAA Tournament.
Conversely, Wake Forest went a disastrous 3-of-18 from downtown. It just can't shoot from 3.
The best path for the offense is Hunter Sallis scoring from the mid-range or at the basket. I mean, the best shooters on Wake's roster from a percentage perspective are Tre'Von Spillers (7-of-22 from 3) and Juke Harris (13-of-41 from 3).
The best shooters are two players making less than a 3 per contest, and the high-volume shooters are well below 30%.
The good thing about Wake is it defends the perimeter very, very well; opponents hit just 31% from 3 versus the Deacs' stout perimeter defense.
Meanwhile, scoring inside the arc is also difficult, as opponents hit just 45% of their shots from that area.
The most surprising struggle for Wake is it's one of the worst rebounding teams in the ACC. You'd expect a team starting a pair of bruising bigs like Spillers and Efton Reid III to make for a good squad on the glass.
Instead, Wake Forest ranks 262nd in offensive rebounding rate and 243rd in defensive rebounding rate.
The biggest key to stopping Louisville's explosive offense is limiting it to one shot. If the Cardinals get multiple looks — especially one with a scrambled defense — that's a major problem.
Louisville Basketball
Louisville is scalding hot, sitting at 15-5 with a 10-game winning streak entering Tuesday's game.
The Cards last three wins were by double-digits, so let's see if the Cards can blowout another ACC foe.
The key to Pat Kelsey's offense is shooting the ball from downtown; 51.2% of their shots are from downtown, but the Cardinals hit just 31% from 3.
The lone scary shooting threat on Louisville's roster is Reyne Smith, a lefty Aussie sniper who's 78-of-191 (40%) from deep.
Star point guard Chucky Hepburn is the catalyst for the Cardinals' success, though. The veteran guard tossed 16 assists compared to just two turnovers in last week's win over SMU, and Hepburn leads Louisville with 15.1 points and 6.4 assists per game for the year, while adding stout defense.
In reality, Louisville isn't going to win every game in ACC play. At some point, the lack of health — missing Kasean Pryor and Koren Johnson — will bite this squad.
Additionally, Louisville is a solid defensive team, ranking 47th in defensive efficiency. The Cards struggle defending jumpers, as opponents shoot 34% from deep and rank in the 30th percentile in catch-and-shoot situations (per Synergy).
They aren't spectacular at defending inside the arc; opponents shoot 49% from 2-point range. While it's not a clear weakness, it's a potential area Wake Forest can exploit.
Wake Forest vs. Louisville Betting Analysis
While I'm expecting a Louisville win here, it wouldn't stun me if the Demon Deacons secured a surprising upset.
The upcoming schedule for Louisville is pretty lax, so this could be the toughest upcoming challenge for the surprise team in the ACC.
With the slower tempo Wake Forest deploys — along with an elite defense — it bodes well for a pretty close game.
The Demon Deacons are as equally hot as Louisville, but it just doesn't have the offense to blow teams out, which affects the metrics.
In turn, Wake Forest becomes a tad undervalued in betting markets.
I didn't think Wake Forest should've been a double-digit home underdog versus Duke, and that turned out to be true.
I expect more of the same here, just on the road instead of in Winston-Salem.
