We knew that the WCC was having a down year, but the good news for the league is that the Saint Mary's Gaels had an unexpected, massive turnaround.
The Gaels were struggling mightily on the offensive end of the floor through the first two months of the season. Since the calendar turned to January, the Gaels have ripped through the WCC like a chainsaw through butter, including an impressive come-from-behind road win at Gonzaga.
In fact, Saint Mary's hasn't lost a game since Dec. 23 when it faced Missouri State.
We may as well crown the Gaels as the WCC regular season champs — they're currently -1100 at most shops — but let's look deeper into the conference below.
Can the Gaels Win the National Title?
I apologize to Gaels fans in advance if I'm jinxing them. They've quickly gone from being second fiddle to Gonzaga to the class of the conference in a matter of months.
The Gaels will be the favorites to win the WCC Tournament in March, but it'll be contingent on their last matchup with the Bulldogs.
Currently, the Gaels are 70-1 to win the national title at most shops. The WCC is a watered-down conference — hence, why the odds are so long.
But it's worth a small wager if the Gaels can improve their free-throw shooting. Their defensive intensity, size and the electric guard play of Aidan Mahaney and Augustus Marciulionis can carry them deep into March.
How to Bet Gonzaga Moving Forward
It's weird to say that Gonzaga needs to win the WCC Tournament to make the NCAA tournament, but that may be the case this year. Mark Few has never missed the Big Dance as the Bulldogs' head coach over the last 21 seasons.
The Zags should've defeated the Gaels in their first matchup, but they let the game slip away.
I'm still determining what to make of the Bulldogs, as their talent level needs to be clarified.
The one piece of advice I'll give is that the market will open the Bulldogs as slight underdogs to win the WCC Tournament, and I'd suggest compiling an open parlay round-by-round instead. You'll get way better value as opposed to taking the pre-market future.
Holding Pattern on San Francisco?
The San Francisco Dons have been a pleasant surprise in the conference, but they've yet to defeat either the Bulldogs or the Gaels.
It's tough to gauge if they present any value in the WCC Tournament, but we'll get a better idea after Thursday's matchup with the Gaels.
I would wait and see on the Dons.
The Stragglers
No other team in the conference presents betting value, as each squad has far too many inconsistencies.
Santa Clara picked up an excellent victory over the Bulldogs earlier in January, but looking at the box score, I'd take that with a grain of salt.
In fact, on February 24, the Broncos host the Bulldogs, and we may get a cheap number for the Zags. I'll be looking to buy, especially given the weak schedule the Broncos have had as of late.
San Diego has played better — winning five of its last seven contests — but all have come against the bottom of the conference. The Toreros take on Saint Mary's on Saturday, which could present some value on the Gaels due to San Diego's recent surge.
Pepperdine crushed Portland on Saturday, and it faces Pacific this Wednesday. The number might be ultra-inflated, but there's no way I'd consider taking the Tigers.
But Really … Is it the Next Season Yet?
The Pacific Tigers are 1-15 in WCC play and last won a game in December. They've been an extremely profitable fade candidate ATS throughout the season.
They gave Gonzaga a scare a few weeks back, but that's their lone season highlight. I'll continue to fade the pathetic Tigers for the remainder of the season, but the market may have finally caught up to how bad they are.
Final WCC Betting Thoughts
Saint Mary's at 70-1 to win the national title seems outrageous, so I'll take a stab at that current price. Randy Bennett's team has the mold of a Final Four squad, but its free-throw shooting needs to improve to make a big run.
The Gaels can also steal an at-large bid if they finish undefeated in WCC play, which would drop the current number significantly. I'd take that now, especially before their next game against Gonzaga.
For the WCC Tournament, the Bulldogs will likely be attached to a juiced number as the second favorite. I like the open-parlay idea if you believe they can win the WCC Tournament.
San Francisco should have value at home against the Bulldogs on February 29, especially since the Bulldogs travel to Saint Mary's two days later. The Dons will be in a smash spot for that game next week, and they should've beaten the Bulldogs the last time they faced each other.
