The WCC is one of the most top-heavy conferences in the college basketball landscape.
There was a time in the past month when many thought the Gonzaga Bulldogs were at risk of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time under Mark Few.
Now the Bulldogs are playing great basketball and enter the WCC tournament with momentum after an impressive road win at Saint Mary's. It was the Gaels' lone loss in the conference, and they finished as the WCC regular season champs.
Many have penciled in the Gaels and Bulldogs into the league championship game already, but there are a few wrenches that could foil that prediction.
Let's take a detailed deep dive into the WCC tournament bracket before we dive into various betting approaches that we can take.
WCC Tournament Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via DraftKings) |
| Gonzaga | -115 |
| Saint Mary's | +105 |
| San Francisco | +1200 |
| Santa Clara | +2500 |
| San Diego | +15000 |
| Portland | +15000 |
| LMU | +20000 |
| Pepperdine | +30000 |
| Pacific | +30000 |
WCC Tournament Bracket
We tip things off with Pepperdine and Pacific. Both of these teams recently had their head coaches resign or get fired, so we have a toilet bowl matchup on our hands.
There's no reason to waste space on either of these teams, but I'm interested in targeting the over in that game. Considering both coaches are gone, it'll be easy to tell if either of these teams care about the game.
It's important to realize that it may cause both teams to play free and loose, which could benefit their offensive production. The Waves and Tigers both finished outside the top 300 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, so don't expect many stops from either side.
The Waves' offense is mediocre, whereas the Tigers were all-time bad in most offensive stats. The Tigers didn't win a single game in the conference, and they were an ATM if you decided to fade them every game ATS.
KenPom makes the game Pepperdine -11, but I can't fade the Tigers due to the Waves' coaching situation. Although the Tigers' offense is horrific, just about anybody can score on the Waves' defense.
Also, be sure to take a look at how these teams' performance has changed on both sides of the ball in the last 30 days, thanks to Collin Wilson:
The Favorites: Gonzaga & Saint Mary's
The Bulldogs enter the tournament as slight betting favorites. It's been quite a turnaround for Few's team, which has played exceptional basketball over the last few weeks.
It was an impressive win at Saint Mary's to close out the regular season, and the Bulldogs knotted the Gaels in head-to-head matchups at one victory a piece.
As bad as the conference was throughout the season, the Bulldogs ended up with the tougher draw in the league tournament, since they finished second in the regular season standings.
The Bulldogs will most likely take on San Francisco in the semifinals, as opposed to the Gaels, who will draw either Santa Clara, Pepperdine or San Diego. Remember, the Zags almost lost to the Dons at home earlier in the season, and San Francisco has flashed plenty of potential to pull off an upset.
To be honest, I don't see any value in betting on the Zags, given the fact they have a tougher path than Saint Mary's. If you're high on the Bulldogs, you're much better off playing it safe and waiting to bet them in the championship game.
The Bulldogs would likely face the Gaels, where they would presumably be a 1-2 point favorite. That's way more enticing than investing in a pre-tournament future that could get spoiled by the Dons.
For the Gaels, there are a couple of question marks heading into the tournament. The biggest news on the injury front is forward Joshua Jefferson, who's out for the remainder of the year due to a knee injury.
That's a huge loss for the Gaels on the defensive side of the ball, and it was on full display in the loss against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs were able to attack the inside consistently without much resistance.
The good news is that they have an easier path to the final, so I would be completely stunned if the Gaels failed to get there. I'd expect a better effort from the Gaels against the Bulldogs, and due to their easier path, they're worthy of a pre-tournament wager.
It's far less risky of a proposition for the Gaels to make the final instead of the Bulldogs, so there's more of an incentive to take the pre-tournament future.
Why you ask?
Well, say the Gaels face the Bulldogs in the final. They'll probably be between -110 and +120 underdog in the matchup, and that's without the possibility of facing San Francisco.
If they face the Dons, they'll be a much heavier favorite, and you would essentially be getting worse odds if that scenario comes to fruition.
To eliminate any variables, if you're a Gaels believer, I'd recommend taking them +100 before the tournament.
The Long Shot Worth Investing: San Francisco 11-1
I love the Dons, and I think a lot of people are sleeping on them heading into the tournament. The Dons need to win this tournament to punch a ticket into the dance, and I think there's a path for them to do so.
It helps when you have arguably the best player in the conference on your team in forward Jonathan Mogbo, who has been sensational all year long.
But there's a reason that the Dons are worth a shot at their current price.
I'll assume that the Dons will take care of business against Loyola Marymount or Portland, so I think it's fair to move ahead to their semifinal matchup with Gonzaga.
Remember, the Dons had a lead with under 10 minutes to go in the first matchup against the Zags on the road. In their recent defeat to the Bulldogs, the Dons shot 7-of-14 at the free-throw line and 40% overall for the contest, including 7-of-25 from deep.
The Bulldogs' offense has improved over the last 30 days, but their defense has taken a slight dip. That's good news for the Dons, considering they're top-40 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
They were also the best team in the conference in forcing turnovers, even better than Saint Mary's. Their offense was third-best in the conference, and if they can slow the game down to a crawl, they would have a great chance of pulling off the upset.
If they get past Gonzaga, the Dons will face Saint Mary's without Jefferson. That will provide their offense a huge bump, and they have the defensive tenacity to hang tough with the Gaels.
Santa Clara & Rest of WCC Pack
Instead of looking at every other team remaining in the WCC, I have a few thoughts about Santa Clara. The Broncos defeated the Bulldogs earlier in the year, but they don't face them on their side of the bracket.
They match up much more poorly against the Gaels than the Bulldogs, especially since their offense has been one of the worst in the conference in the past 30 days.
Their defense has improved over that span, but that won't be enough against the Gaels.
The only betting recommendation I could give for the remaining group is that there could be some value on the over between Loyola Marymount and Portland on Friday. Both offenses have trended upwards over the last 30 days, and Portland is 336th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
The Lions are third in the WCC in 3-point percentage, whereas the Pilots are fifth. I expect a closer contest than many presume, which correlates with a high-scoring affair.
