We're less than 30 days from the NCAA Tournament tipping off, so if you haven't already started, it's time to buckle down and enjoy some regular season college hoops.
Our staff has been hard at work dissecting Wednesday's 49-game card and is heading to the AAC, Patriot League, SEC and ACC to find betting value.
Here are our favorite bets for Wednesday:
Wednesday College Basketball Betting Picks
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Michael Calabrese
- Odds: Army @ Loyola Maryland -5
- Over/Under: 146
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: Patriot League Network
One of the biggest pieces of personnel news to hit the mid-major ranks over the past three months was the debut of Santi Aldama for Loyola. The MVP of the 2019 FIBA U18 European Championship is arguably the most decorated recruit in the history of the Patriot League.
Since his debut on Feb. 1 against Navy, the once-floundering Greyhounds are 4-1 SU and a matching 4-1 ATS. As his minutes increase, he’s averaging 12.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.
He has changed the complexion of Loyola’s interior defense and contributed to the school’s best regular season win in years on Sunday when they defeated Colgate.
The betting market has adjusted slightly, but not enough to remove value from betting on Loyola in this spot. The Greyhounds nearly upset Army on the road back in mid-January without Aldama and now hold a noticeable size advantage over the tiny Black Knight frontcourt.
Army’s regular rotation features just two players over 6-foot-7, and the Greyhounds can counter with Aldama (6’11”), Dike (6’10”) and Holcombe (6’8”). Army collects just 5.8 offensive rebounds per game, ranking them dead last in the Patriot League and just 11 spots above the worst offensive rebounding team in Division I.
With Aldama leading the way, Loyola is now a top-ten team nationally in 2P% and foul shot attempts per game. Toss in the Pat League’s leading scorer, Andrew Kostecka, and you have an offense that can really hum.
I’m counting on more of the same from the rejuvenated Hounds and will continue to ride their coattails until the market begins to accurately price them.
Pick: Loyola -5
Stuckey
- Odds: SMU at Tulane +8
- Over/Under: 138
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
Most importantly, I make this line closer to 6, so I see value in the home dog here.
It's a good situational spot here as well after SMU’s huge win over Houston in overtime while Tulane got pummeled by Wichita State on the road in its last game.
If you haven’t watched SMU, the Mustangs have an excellent offense that will have a big edge over the Green Wave tonight.
That said, I think the Tulane offense, which does take care of the ball, can get enough buckets against a very poor SMU defense to at least keep this close, especially if the Stangs come out a little flat against a veteran Tulane team looking to end a nine-game losing streak.
Pick: Tulane +8
Mike Randle
- Odds: South Carolina at Miss. State -5.5
- Over/Under: 143
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: SECN
South Carolina (16-9) head coach Frank Martin has done a masterful job rallying his Gamecocks back after brutal home losses to Boston University and Stetson. They have won six of their last seven games and sit in fifth-place in the SEC.
However, they now go on the road to face a Mississippi State team that provides a difficult matchup.
The Bulldogs (16-9) have been dominant in Starkville, with five consecutive SEC home wins by an average of 17.8 points. They are the third-best offensive rebounding team in the nation and shoot a superior 78.9% from the free throw line in conference play.
The Gamecocks rank first in SEC play in adjusted defensive efficiency and allow a conference best 25.9% from 3P. However, Mississippi State only generates 21.3% of their points from beyond the arc, 343rd in the nation.
South Carolina barely escaped its last game, a 63-61 home win over Tennessee. The Gamecocks Achilles’ Heel continues to be free-throw shooting, as they shot a woeful 19 of 32 (59.4%) from the line against the Volunteers. On the season, they are shooting an SEC worst 62.4% from the charity stripe in conference play.
The Bulldogs are due for some regression anyway from their opponents free-throw shooting, as teams have shot 73.0% (top 100 nationally) from the line against Mississippi State.
I’m taking Mississippi State to earn another strong home win and cover the 5.5 point spread. I would bet this up to -6.
Pick: Mississippi State -5.5
Collin Wilson
- Odds: South Carolina at Miss. State -5.5
- Over/Under: 143
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: SECN
Playing on the road is no issue for Frank Martin and South Carolina. The Gamecocks have covered all but just two games this season on the road.
With an 8-4 record in conference play, South Carolina is on the outside of the NCAA Tournament with six regular season games to go. A victory at Mississippi State would count as a Quadrant 1 win and would be enough to boost the Gamecocks into the March Madness field.
Ben Howland’s squad has been able to tower over most teams with an average height rank of No. 7 in the nation. A rank of No. 3 in the nation in offensive rebounding rate will require any opponent to make the first shot.
But South Carolina boasts the best adjusted efficiency in the SEC. The Gamecocks are playing the best perimeter defense in conference play, allowing just 25.9% of shots from deep to go down.
That is not necessarily Mississippi State’s game, with a point distribution rank of No. 1 in the SEC in 2-point scoring. South Carolina may be up to the task, ranking 36th in the nation in opponent 2-point percentage. The Gamecocks are also one of the taller teams in the nation with an average height rank of 26th.
The biggest advantage in this game for South Carolina will come in transition. The Bulldogs rank 307th in the country in offensive steal rate. South Carolina has averaged 10.8 steals per game on the season and ranks second in SEC play.
The Gamecocks are road tested and heavily motivated to get another Quadrant 1 victory. Any number over +5 is worth a play on the visitor.
Pick: South Carolina +5.5
Eli Hershkovich
- Odds: Duke -7.5 @ N.C. State
- Over/Under: 150.5
- Time: 9 pm ET
- TV: ESPN
The Blue Devils have struggled to cover the spread during their seven-game winning streak, dropping three of their past four contests ATS. With another slightly inflated line, expect that to continue in Raleigh against the Wolfpack.
Duke has yielded the fourth-highest two-point scoring rate across Division I — and the highest in ACC play. With N.C. State relying on its aggressiveness off the dribble (58th-highest 2-point scoring rate), especially in transition, look for Kevin Keatts’ bunch to aim to expose Mike Kryzewski’s weak interior defense with Markell Johnson and DJ Funderburk.
Blue Devils point guard Tre Jones thrives off generating turnovers and getting his unit out in transition, but the Wolfpack present the 51st-lowest turnover rate in college hoops. If Johnson isn’t turnover-happy, N.C. State should be in prime position to make this a one- or two-score game.
Lacking a signature win in a conference with three teams boasting a secure spot in the NCAA tournament (Duke, Florida State, Louisville), the Wolfpack are desperate for a marquee victory. Expect them to at least cover in a motivational spot.
Pick: N.C. State +7.5
