The West Virginia Mountaineers take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, TX. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Houston is favored by 16 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1800. The total is set at 122.5 points.
Here are my West Virginia vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for January 15, 2025.
West Virginia vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Houston -15.5 (Play to -18)
My West Virginia vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
West Virginia vs Houston Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -112 | 122.5 -108 / -112 | +1000 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -108 | 122.5 -108 / -112 | -1800 |
- West Virginia vs Houston spread: Houston -16
- West Virginia vs Houston over/under: 122.5 points
- West Virginia vs Houston moneyline: Houston -1800, West Virginia +1000
- West Virginia vs Houston best bet: Houston -15.5 (Play to -18)
Spread
Considering Houston's current form and knowing how stout Houston's defense is, I'll lay it with the Cougars at home.
Moneyline
Houston should win comfortably, and the steep moneyline price reflects that.
Over/Under
The total is extremely low, which makes sense for two slower teams that have elite 2-point percentage defenses. It's a no bet for me.
My Pick: Houston -15.5 (Play to -18)
West Virginia vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
West Virginia Basketball
Pick a preseason prognostication for the West Virginia Mountaineers, and they've almost certainly exceeded it. Even the rosiest West Virginia insiders could hardly have imagined that Darian DeVries would have the Mountaineers in prime position for an NCAA Tournament bid halfway through his first campaign.
Largely due to a stingy defense, West Virginia already holds wins over Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas – all away from home. Those three premier scalps have the Mountaineers sitting pretty – as does a 3-1 start to Big 12 play.
That outstanding defense is most sustainable due to its ability to take away easy baskets. West Virginia ranks 15th nationally in 2-point percentage defense, with Eduardo Andre’s dynamite rim protection serving as a stout foundation.
The Mountaineers’ defense suffers without him: Per Hoop-Explorer, the Mountaineers allow 57.1% shooting at the rim when he sits, compared to 43.3% when he plays.
But even without him, West Virginia can lock down foes.
Offensively, Javon Small has been a godsend. Previously a solid piece for Oklahoma State, he's evolved into much, much more under DeVries’ watch.
Thanks to his pick-and-roll aptitude and scoring off the bounce, Small has ascended into the top 10 of KenPom’s Player of the Year (kPOY) standings. He keeps lofty company, like Purdue’s Braden Smith and Memphis’ PJ Haggerty.
The offense can experience droughts, though, with Tucker DeVries having missed an extended amount of time. The coach’s son should be forming a dynamic duo with Small (as he did for the season’s first eight games), but it’s possible he could miss the remainder of the season. His shot-making is impossible to replicate.
Houston Basketball
Few teams are playing as well as Houston is right now. The Cougars are 5-0 against the spread over their last five games, including four dominant Big 12 performances (average margin of victory: 23.3 points).
They look like a juggernaut.
Certainly, as of today, Houston’s actual on-court accomplishments don't measure up to its predictive metrics. The Cougars are the highest-rated team in Haslametrics and Bart Torvik, and they rank third per KenPom and EvanMiya.
In comparison, resume metrics on the NCAA Tournament committee’s team sheet average out to 30.7. The Cougars must prove they can measure up to their lofty predictive ratings.
Like most Kelvin Sampson teams, that starts on the defensive end. Houston’s overwhelming effort, physicality and athleticism makes it nearly impossible to score on. It’s no surprise to see the Cougars rank No. 1 nationally in 2-point percentage defense.
A dominant frontcourt is at the heart of Houston’s defense. Joseph Tugler has emerged into a world-altering force as a sophomore, leading the country in block rate (an absurd 16.6%) thanks to his limitless wingspan. Ja’Vier Francis and J’Wan Roberts are the veterans, and they’re plenty steadfast on the defensive end, as well.
In part due to those pieces, Houston hasn't allowed an opponent to score 60 points since Nov. 30, a streak of eight consecutive games.
Perhaps the most important swing factor for Houston’s upside is the continued integration of Milos Uzan, the Oklahoma transfer brought in to replace point guard Jamal Shead. Though Uzan isn't quite as livewire quick and instinctual as Shead, he's longer and a better outside shooter.
Long-range marksmanship and offensive rebounding tell the Cougars’ offensive story. LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are arguably the deadliest outside shooting duo in the Big 12 (combined 82-of-185 from deep, 44.3%).
Paired with the nation’s 17th-ranked offensive rebounding rate, Houston’s offense is able to score efficiently despite a shaky shot selection profile.
West Virginia vs. Houston Betting Analysis
As I handicap this game, the glaring question I keep coming back to is a basic one: How does West Virginia score?
Houston’s defense is built to short-circuit limited attacks, and it's gotten off to a destroyer-esque start to league play. With West Virginia being so reliant on one player (Small), Houston has the ability to “cut the head off the snake,” so to speak.
West Virginia will almost certainly be forced to take a bevy of triples late in the shot clock. The Mountaineers are patient under DeVries, and Houston forces the fourth-longest possessions in the country, on average (per KenPom).
Those jumpers are likely to be extremely low quality.
Of course, Houston is unlikely to get many easy baskets either, particularly when Andre is on the floor. The major risk is the Cougars’ offensive rebounding, which could put a strain on West Virginia’s shaky work on the defensive glass (187th nationally in defensive rebound rate, per KenPom).
That would give Houston a route to more efficient offense.
Notably for the handicap, West Virginia has somewhat strange travel. The Mountaineers were in Boulder, CO, on Sunday, and traveled to Houston in the interim. That spread-out road trip is new for the Big 12 and could have slight negative effects.
Overall, this matchup still seems to set up well for a Houston blowout. West Virginia will struggle mightily to produce points, and Houston’s offensive rebounding looks like a repeatable route to offense (especially kick-out 3-pointers).
The number is scary in a low-possession game, but with West Virginia short-handed, I believe Houston extends its ATS win streak to six. I would bet this up to -18, but nothing past that.
