The West Virginia Mountaineers take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, KS. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Kansas State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -142. The total is set at 133 points.
Here are my West Virginia vs. Kansas State predictions and college basketball picks for January 25, 2025.
College Basketball Odds: West Virginia vs Kansas State Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 133 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 133 -110o / -110u | -142 |
- West Virginia vs Kansas State spread: Kansas State -2.5
- West Virginia vs Kansas State over/under: 133 points
- West Virginia vs Kansas State moneyline: Kansas State -142, West Virginia +120
- West Virginia vs Kansas State best bet: PASS | Lean West Virginia +2.5
My West Virginia vs Kansas State best bet is on the Mountaineers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
My West Virginia vs Kansas State NCAAB Betting Preview
After an incredible upset win over Iowa State, West Virginia lost outright to Arizona State in the most predictable letdown ever.
Of course, from a variance perspective, the Mountaineers weren’t super lucky, making only four of their 29 3-point attempts (14%).
The Mountaineers could be a good zig-zag betting team. Here are their past five results:
- 19-point home loss to Arizona
- Eight-point road win over Colorado
- 16-point road loss to Houston
- Seven-point home win over Iowa State
- Eight-point home loss to Arizona State
A similar thing happened during its three-game Battle 4 Atlantis run, as West Virginia beat Gonzaga in overtime, then lost to Louisville in overtime and then beat Arizona in overtime.
On the contrary, will we ever be able to catch a falling knife with Kansas State? The Wildcats are in freefall as losers of six straight. They’ve looked woeful, and Achor Achor's injury hasn’t helped.
That said, the Wildcats are due for some positive regression on defense, as opponents have hit a whopping 39% of 3-point attempts. Combine that with West Virginia’s long-overdue negative regression on defense (opponents are shooting only 27%), and Kansas State could earn enough positive variance to hang around on Saturday.
This could also be a small bounce-back spot for the Wildcats, who will hopefully be fired up to close out a win after blowing a 12-point second-half lead against Baylor on Wednesday.
For what it’s worth, Kansas State has covered its past three games despite losing all three straight up. That makes me think the Wildcats are a tad undervalued in the markets (especially when you consider their looming positive regression).
Plus, it’s always tough to play at the Octagon Of Doom — although, the Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in true road games this season.
From a schematic perspective, stopping the Javon Small-Amani Hansberry ball-screen actions is crucial, as the Mountaineers have been electric in those sets all year.
I’m not entirely convinced Kansas State can do that. On one hand, the Wildcats’ ball-screen coverage defense has been mediocre. On the other hand, their drop-coverage defense has been elite at preventing 3-point attempts, which is crucial against the Mountaineers’ jump-shooting prowess.
Finally, Kansas State has been gashed at the rim, but West Virginia doesn’t spend much time at the rim.
I think Small will be able to carve Kansas State up in the middle of the floor, but I can’t be sure.
On the other end of the court, stopping Kansas State is about stopping Coleman Hawkins and Dug McDaniel in isolation while denying David N'Guessan’s cutting actions. The Wildcats want to get to the rim and work inside-out from there.
I think West Virginia can do that. The Mountaineers have been great at defending on an island (.47 PPP allowed, 99th percentile, per Synergy), and they’ve been rock-solid in cut-denial (six cutting points per game allowed, third-fewest in the Big 12, per Synergy).
It’s a tough matchup to handicap. But, ultimately, I think the Wildcats are getting a little too much love in the markets — perhaps their home-court advantage is being overvalued.
It feels wrong to make Kansas State a favorite over West Virginia. Even on the road, many projection systems, including Haslametrics (-3.5) and Bart Torvik (-5), make the Mountaineers a favorite.
The situational spot doesn't overly favor Kansas State, considering West Virginia could zig-zag back into the win column after Tuesday’s loss. I can’t reasonably say it’s a “bounce-back” spot for the Wildcats after six consecutive losses, even if a few were closer than the closing line indicates.
I can’t get a great read on this game. But if I had to, I’d recommend backing West Virginia.
