What If Oddsmakers or KenPom Made the 68-Team NCAA Tournament Field?

What If Oddsmakers or KenPom Made the 68-Team NCAA Tournament Field? article feature image
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There is no proper way to conduct Selection Sunday. It is built for drama and it is built for debate.

But the way the NCAA selects the 68-team field appears to be dated. As avid sports bettors, it makes us wonder what would happen if oddsmakers selected the field instead of the selection committee.

The NCAA doesn't hide the selection process. They release the NET rankings throughout the season, talk about the other metrics they use when selecting teams, and have members go on TV and dissect the process. Yet, somehow, every time the bracket comes out there are major question marks.

Upsets are inevitable in the NCAA Tournament. But is it truly an upset when the higher seed is favored over the lower seed according to the sportsbooks?

Let's talk about New Mexico for example. New Mexico received the No. 11 seed and a matchup against the No. 6 seed Clemson in the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico opened and is currently a 1.5-point favorite against Clemson.

The NCAA admitted on Sunday that New Mexico was a bid stealer. That means the Lobos would not be in the field if New Mexico had not won the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

But according to Haslametrics.com — a site that predicts scores based on metrics — New Mexico would be favored over 16 teams that received at-large bids in the NCAA Tournament on a neutral court.

Haslametrics predicts New Mexico would beat Virginia 66.43-62.68, making New Mexico around a 4-point favorite over No. 10 seeded Virginia. Effectively, the selection committee said Virginia deserved an at-large spot over New Mexico. In addition, Virginia is a No. 10 seed while New Mexico is a No. 11 seed.

Virginia was the most controversial team selected by the committee. The advanced metrics do not favor Virginia as a team worthy of an at-large bid. Virginia is ranked No. 69 on KenPom and No. 58 on Haslametrics.

Based on Haslametrics, Virginia would be a 4-point underdog to St. John's, a 3-point underdog to Villanova, a 3-point underdog to Wake Forest and a 2.5-point underdog to Pittsburgh all on a neutral court. All four of those teams missed the NCAA Tournament.

The Action Network's college basketball expert Anthony Dabbundo says he would have Virginia as a 3.5 or 4-point underdog to St. John's and New Mexico.

The analytics community takes issue with more than just which teams are selected. There is also an issue with how teams are seeded.

Auburn is likely the most controversial. Auburn was awarded a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Auburn is a top-four team in the country according to KenPom and Haslametrics. The Tigers are also in a region with the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. That means we could see two of the top four teams in overall efficiency face each other in a Sweet 16 game — a travesty for either team's fans.

Sure, that makes for a fantastic Sweet 16 matchup for the rest of us. But is that a fair situation for Auburn? Or even UConn? The selection committee might need to take a hard look in the mirror and decide whether they should begin to take advantage of the resources available in 2024.

68-Team Field Based On KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Ratings

*KenPom is the closest thing to knowing how oddsmakers would rate teams. 

1Connecticut
1Houston
1Purdue
1Auburn
2Iowa St.
2Arizona
2Tennessee
2Duke
3North Carolina
3Illinois
3Creighton
3Marquette
4Alabama
4Baylor
4Gonzaga
4BYU
5Wisconsin
5Michigan St.
5Kentucky
5Saint Mary's
6San Diego St.
6Kansas
6New Mexico
6Texas Tech
7St. John's
7Colorado
7Texas
7Nebraska
8Florida
8Mississippi St.
8Wake Forest
8Dayton
9TCU
9Clemson
9Villanova
9Nevada
10Cincinnati
10Colorado St.
10Boise St.
10Pittsburgh/Florida Atlantic
11Washington State/Texas A&M
11Drake
11Oregon
11Grand Canyon
12NC State
12James Madison
12McNeese State
12Samford
13Yale
13Duquesne
13Charleston
13Vermont
14UAB
14Morehead State
14Akron
14Western Kentucky
15South Dakota State
15Colgate
15Longwood
15LBSU
16Saint Peter's
16Montana State
16Stetson/Wagner
16Grambling State/Howard

About the Author
Chase is a news writer at The Action Network. He specializes in college sports, golf and soccer but will watch anything you can bet on. Catch him on the golf course either carrying a bag or playing with his buddies.

Follow Chase Howell @chasehowell__ on Twitter/X.

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