The Wichita State Shockers take on the Memphis Tigers in Memphis, TN. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Memphis is favored by 13 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 158 points.
Here are my Wichita State vs. Memphis predictions and college basketball picks for January 23, 2025.
Wichita State vs Memphis Prediction
My Pick: Wichita State +12 or Better
My Wichita State vs Memphis best bet is on the Shockers spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wichita State vs Memphis Odds
| Wichita State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -108 | 158 -110 / -110 | +575 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -112 | 158 -110 / -110 | -850 |
- Wichita State vs Memphis spread: Memphis -13
- Wichita State vs Memphis over/under: 158 points
- Wichita State vs Memphis moneyline: Memphis -850, Wichita State +575
- Wichita State vs Memphis best bet: Wichita State +12 or Better
Spread
I'm backing the Shockers as road 'dogs. More specifically, I'm fading Penny Hardaway as a big favorite.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
My Pick: Wichita State +12 or Better
Wichita State vs Memphis College Basketball Betting Preview
Hardaway tends to take these transfer-laden rosters and overperform against higher-echelon competition in the non-conference before underperforming in AAC play.
While his Tigers are 4-1 straight up in conference play, they’re also 1-4 ATS, with a seven-point road loss to lowly Temple.
Plus, they’ve been fortunate with shooting variance, as opponents have shot only 27% from 3 on high volume (ranking second-to-last in the league in 3-point rate allowed, 40%, per KenPom).
Meanwhile, Wichita State is due for plenty of positive shooting regression. The Shockers are 1-4 in AAC play, but mainly because they’ve shot 31% from 3, while opponents have shot 42%.
I’m sure those numbers will swing the other way eventually.
Could Wichita earn some of that positive regression on Thursday against Memphis?
It’s tough to say. Schematically, the Shockers are more rim-oriented on both sides of the basketball, which could limit how much shooting variance we get in the game.
Wichita State is a transition-and-rim-reliant offense, either rim-running in the open court or rim-running through ball-screens. Memphis has been a rock-solid transition-and-rim defense, and the Tigers’ ball-screen coverage has been fine.
They often struggle to clean the defensive glass, though, which could allow the Shockers to grab enough offensive rebounds and score enough second-chance points to hang around.
On the other end of the court, Wichita State packs it in on defense, ranking last in the AAC in 3-point rate allowed (42%, per KenPom). The Shockers are good at not fouling and cleaning the glass, which is crucial against Memphis.
But they’re also vulnerable defending in isolation (.81 PPP allowed, 44th percentile, per Synergy) and against cutting actions (1.35 PPP allowed, fourth percentile, per Synergy), two tenants of the Tigers’ guard-friendly attack.
Ultimately, I think the Shockers are undervalued while the Tigers are overvalued. While the schematic matchup isn’t perfect, I could see the Shockers hanging around by winning the shot-volume battle.
They should be able to handle Memphis’ press (.95 press PPP, 69th percentile, per Synergy) while the Tigers throw the ball away (21% turnover rate in conference play, last in the AAC, per KenPom), and I expect Wichita State wins the rebounding battle.
Maybe most importantly, I don’t trust Coach Hardaway as a big favorite. The Tigers are 16-29-1 ATS as double-digit favorites under the seventh-year head coach, including 8-17-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite in AAC play.
