The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 1:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan State is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here are my Wisconsin vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for March 2, 2025.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Picks
- Pick: Wisconsin +4.5
My Michigan State vs. Wisconsin best bet is on the Badgers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -105 | 146 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -115 | 146 -110o / -110u | -205 |
- Wisconsin vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -4, Wisconsin +4
- Wisconsin vs Michigan State over/under: 146
- Wisconsin vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State ML -205 , Wisconsin ML +170
- Wisconsin vs Michigan State best bet: Wisconsin +4.5
Spread
I'm taking the Badgers on the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Wisconsin +4.5
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State NCAAB Preview
All eyes will be on the Big Ten on Sunday as two of the best teams in the country square off.
Wisconsin has been humming lately, up to No. 8 in KenPom, its highest ranking since 2015 when it made the NCAA Championship game. Besides a bizarre late-game collapse against Oregon, the Badgers have been excellent the past month-plus, as they're winners of six of their last seven.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is back home after a dramatic victory at Maryland in which it won after Tre Holloman buried a 60-footer at the buzzer. The Spartans are tied for first place in the Big Ten and sit a full two games above Wisconsin in the standings.
The league’s best offensive team, Wisconsin, will face the league’s best defensive team, Michigan State.
The Spartans are so good defensively because they're so positionally sound at all times on this end. They’re the best defensive rebounding team in the Big Ten, they keep guys in front and they have a ton of size in the middle.
Has there been a bit of luck in Sparty’s success on this end? Probably. Michigan State ranks 15th in the Big Ten in 3-point attempt rate allowed but No. 1 in 3-point percentage — opponents are shooting just 27.4% from deep in conference play, an extreme number.
The Badgers are the best 3-point shooting team in the league, leading the Big Ten in both 3-point attempt rate and 3-point percentage. If any team will finally break the “luck” of the Spartans, it’ll be Wisconsin.
The dynamic John duo — John Tonje and John Blackwell — are tough covers, especially given Sparty doesn’t have a ton of pure wing size — unless you count Coen Carr.
Offensively, the Badgers’ shooting chart is gorgeous. They're hyper-efficient at the rim, hyper-efficient from deep and they avoid the mid-range. Michigan State has a great rim defense, but again, it'll allow outside looks.
Post-ups have been a steady source of scoring for the Badgers, with Steven Crowl being a monster all season. Pick-and-rolls have also been fruitful, with Blackwell, Tonje and even Max Klesmit being threats to drive or shoot off Crowl/Nolan Winter screens.
Sparty has been kind of average defending post-ups and ball screens all year – their defensive efficiency is largely driven by their ability to close out and force misses and end possessions on the glass.
Like its defense, Michigan State’s offense is fundamental and rock solid. The Spartans are the best offensive rebounding team in the league and boast the No. 3 free throw attempt rate. They’re physical and they don't quit on possessions.
Wisconsin is big up front and the league’s second-best defensive rebounding team, so it should be able to put up a fight on the boards. The Badgers also don’t foul and have been excellent defending inside the arc all season.
Look for Wisconsin to dare Michigan State to beat it from deep – the Spartans rank last in the Big Ten in 3-point attempt rate and 14th in 3-point percentage.
Sparty is all rim and paint on offense. Michigan State ranks 28th nationally in field goal percentage at the rim and 13th in paint field goal percentage.
It’s very hard to get to the rim against Wisconsin (third nationally in field goal attempt rate allowed near the bucket), but the Badgers do allow a ton of mid-range and paint looks.
Michigan State will also look to run a good amount and has been great in transition all season. The Spartans can surprise teams by running after makes, and their defensive rebounding ability helps spark the break.
Michigan State has recently seen a surge offensively thanks to the play of freshman guard Jase Richardson, who's slowly ascended to alpha status on this end.
He’s been terrific off ball screens – far better than Jeremy Fears Jr., Holloman and Jaden Akins – and he adds a layer of dynamism to the Spartans' attack.
This will be a hotly contested game for all 40 minutes, but expect the Badgers to emerge victorious at the end. Their ability to shoot and compete on the glass is unique to Michigan State thus far in conference play.
Wisconsin should be able to finally cause Sparty’s insane defensive 3-point luck to regress.
