The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament final. Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Wisconsin is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 151 points.
Here are my Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for March 16, 2025.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Picks
- Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
My Michigan vs. Wisconsin best bet is for the Badgers to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 152.5 -105o / -115u | -185 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 152.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan spread: Wisconsin -3.5, Michigan +3.5
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan over/under: 152.5
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan moneyline: Wisconsin ML -185, Michigan ML +150
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan best bet: Wisconsin -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
Wisconsin vs. Michigan Big Ten Tournament Championship Preview
I don't think anyone saw Michigan and Wisconsin playing for the conference title in the preseason. But a lot of credit goes to Dusty May and Greg Gard for getting their squads in this position.
Michigan needed some heroics from Tre Donaldson to make it here. Donaldson drove to the hoop for a game-winner versus Maryland.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin took care of business as a 'dog against Michigan State.
Michigan and Wisconsin played one time during the regular season, and it was an ugly 67-64 win for the Wolverines. Both teams struggled to connect from deep, as Michigan went 6-of-25 and Wisconsin went 6-of-27.
I still struggle to believe in Michigan. I know the Wolverines pounded Purdue two nights ago, but they blew a big lead to Maryland in the semifinals, which is an unfortunate trend for the Maize and Blue.
Michigan is really bad in two areas — shooting and turnovers. Everybody has talked about it, but it's worth discussing. The Wolverines shot below 34% from 3 in the first two games of the Big Ten Tournament but still managed to win.
The Wolverines shot just 33% from downtown this year. So, shooting poorly isn't a new development. Since Feb. 1, the problem has grown even more dire, as Michigan is shooting 27% from 3.
That's a 13-game sample with Michigan as one of the 15 worst perimeter shooting teams in the sport. I have a hard time trusting a team that shoots a lot that can't make them.
Conversely, I have a lot of faith in Wisconsin's shooting. The Badgers shoot 3s at a 47% rate and make 35% of them.
The best part about the Badgers' attack? Nobody who plays isn't a shooting threat. The bigs — Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter — shoot 40% and 37%, respectively.
The key is John Tonje. He had a real case for Big Ten Player of the Year, scoring 26 points and 32 points in his last two games. He can single-handedly dominate and lead the Badgers to a Big Ten title.
For this handicap to hit, Wisconsin has to revisit its ball-screen coverage versus Michigan's big-big pick-and-roll. Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin crushed Wisconsin's defense in the first meeting. We'll see what Gard draws up this time around to contain the bigs.
It'll be tough for Goldin to post up and dominate. Wisconsin's size should counteract Goldin's post-up prowess, as the Badgers rank in the 85th percentile against post-ups.
Wisconsin forces turnovers just 14% of the time, so it probably can't take advantage of Michigan's biggest flaw. That means the Badgers need the Wolverines to fall in love with perimeter jumpers.
I expected the line to open up around Wisconsin -3.5 or -4. The line opened at -2.5 and jumped to -3.5 pretty quickly. With the number sitting at -3.5, I still like the Badgers.
They have such a strong shooting advantage, and Michigan feels very one-dimensional offensively. Wisconsin holds teams to 47% shooting from inside the arc, and that should help limit Michigan's offense.
