Wisconsin vs Purdue Pick, Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 148 -115o / -105u | +350 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 148 -115o / -105u | -455 |
Wisconsin duels Purdue on Sunday, March 10, at 12:30 p.m. ET on FOX. Here's Wisconsin vs Purdue odds and a pick.
The Purdue Boilermakers already won the Big Ten regular season title this week after beating Illinois.
Now that its celebration is over, it's time to flip the page. Zach Edey will play his final home game in Mackey.
Wisconsin comes to West Lafayette and hopes to spoil the back-to-back National Player of the Year winner's festivities.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is limping into the NCAA tournament. The Badgers will clearly make the dance, but they're struggling right now, losing seven of the past 10 games. It's been a total collapse for Greg Gard's squad.
So, what's gone wrong? Wisconsin was a top-10 offensive team in the sport before the calendar flipped to February. In the past month, the Badgers have ranked 53rd in Offensive Efficiency (adjusting Bart Torvik's data from February to March).
Wisconsin never felt like a top-10 offense by the eye test, but the metrics indicated otherwise. Now the eyes and metrics match.
Wisconsin really struggles shooting the ball, connecting on 34% of its shots from 3. Max Klesmit is really the roster's only trustworthy shooter. Three of the five starters shoot below 32% from 3, and Steven Crowl barely shoots triples.
AJ Storr is the only real shot-creating threat in Wisconsin's offense.
You look at the other options, and nothing stands out. Crowl plays well in the pick-and-pop game, and Chucky Hepburn focuses more on facilitating. The Badgers need another player that strikes fear into defense, and that guy isn't on the team, unfortunately.
On defense, Wisconsin is dealing with a historically poor season by Gard's standards. Most college hoop fans consider Gard a "defensive-minded" coach, and it's for a reason. The best teams in Gard's time in Madison posted elite defensive metrics.
This year's Badgers squad ranks 61st in Defensive Efficiency (the second-worst in Gard's time as head coach) and opponents shoot 37% from 3.
I didn't think Wisconsin could possibly be this bad at defending 3s for an entire year, but we're in March. It's not changing now.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue firmly cemented itself as a one-seed in the NCAA tournament, as Matt Painter aims for the same redemption arc Tony Bennett got four years ago.
I truly believe in Purdue chances of winning a national title for a few key reasons.
The biggest — both literally and figuratively — is Edey, the 7-foot-4 phenom from Canada. Edey is soon to become the first player to win back-to-back NPOY awards since Ralph Sampson. He's a total wrecking machine, but Wisconsin held him to only 18 points in the first matchup — one of his lowest point totals in conference play.
Additionally, the Boilermakers boast the best offense in America, ranking first in Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Purdue offers an inside-out attack, as it shoots over 40% from 3. Three Purdue players shoot better than 42% from deep, two of which — Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith — made huge strides this year.
Last season, Smith and Loyer looked passive and reluctant in the NCAA tournament loss against Fairleigh Dickinson. Now Smith and Loyer get buckets in a confident manner.
The Bob Cousy Award is under a full boycott from me until next season for leaving Smith off the list, as he's averaging 13 points, five rebounds and seven assists.
Wisconsin vs Purdue
Betting Pick & Prediction
If you've spent the season betting on Wisconsin — particularly in league play — it's been a money-losing endeavor. The Badgers have a rough 12-17-1 ATS record, compared to Purdue's strong 16-12-2 record.
Trying to pinpoint if a team is motivated with nothing to play for is never easy. However, with Edey and Lance Jones playing their final home games, Purdue should play with energy.
I can't see Wisconsin slowing down Purdue's elite shooting, or Edey owning the paint. I consider those factors as the reason Purdue will blitz Wisconsin and cover the nine points.
