The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
Purdue is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -238. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Wisconsin vs. Purdue predictions and college basketball picks for February 15, 2025.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Over 149.5 (Play to 150)
My Wisconsin vs Purdue best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wisconsin vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Line
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -235 |
- Wisconsin vs. Purdue spread: Purdue -5.5, Wisconsin +5.5.
- Wisconsin vs. Purdue over/under: 150.5 points
- Wisconsin vs. Purdue moneyline: Purdue ML -235, Wisconsin ML +190
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm expecting a barn burner in this one and taking the over.
My Pick: Over 149.5 (Play to 150)
Wisconsin vs. Purdue NCAAB Preview
I’m banking on a barn burner at Mackey on Saturday.
Wisconsin plays a two-big, drop-coverage defensive scheme that funnels on-ball creation into the middle of the court.
Unfortunately for the Badgers, Purdue’s Braden Smith is arguably the nation’s best ball-screen orchestrator who can obliterate drop coverage.
For example, Smith scored 24 points in each matchup against Michigan’s drop, 24 points against Maryland’s drop, 17 points against Washington’s drop (on the road) and 17 points against Alabama’s drop.
Smith is a drop-coverage trump card, and I fully expect him to rip Wisconsin to shreds.
It’s also always worth betting on Purdue’s offense at home. The Boilers own the nation’s second-best at-home offensive efficiency mark (128, per Bart Torvik), as they’ve shot nearly 40% from 3 and 60% from 2 in 13 home matchups.
They’ve dropped at least 80 points in their past three home games, including 90 against USC and Michigan.
On the other end of the court, I’ve been relatively unimpressed with Purdue’s interior defense, which has been much worse sans Zach Edey (56% 2-point shooting allowed in Big Ten play, 14th in the conference, per KenPom).
Wisconsin primarily scores in three ways: The Badgers work the ball through the post with Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter, run ball screens with the interchangeable wing trio of John Tonje, John Blackwell and Max Klesmit or space the floor and beat teams with efficient catch-and-shoot creation (often out of inside-out passes from the post).
I have zero faith in Purdue to stop any of Wisconsin’s actions.
The Boilermakers have a lackluster ball-screen coverage defense (.92 PPP allowed on high volume, 28th percentile, per Synergy) that was recently shredded in the pick-and-roll by Michigan (1.33 PPP), Iowa (1.23 PPP), Ohio State (1.13 PPP), Washington (1.43 PPP) and Nebraska (1.43 PPP).
They’re also an average post-up defense (.91 PPP allowed, 49th percentile, per Synergy), but not because they’re deficient in one-on-one defense but because they struggle to close out on inside-out actions (allowing nearly six per game, about 10th percentile, per Hoop-Explorer).
Purdue ranks 322nd nationally in expected catch-and-shoot 3-point PPP allowed (1.06, per ShotQuality) because it allows plenty of unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (nine per game, second-most in the Big Ten, per Synergy).
Even better, Purdue is due for serious negative regression against those unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. Opponents have shot 30% from 3 on those opportunities, generating just .91 points per shot, the 10th-lowest mark nationally and .21 under expectation (per Synergy).
Wisconsin’s offense ranks 25th nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing metric, while Purdue’s defense ranks 331st in the same metric. Wisconsin should be able to spread the Boilermakers out and hit triples all night, and Purdue is due for a few opposing shots to fall.
And I’m not afraid of backing that model on the road. The Badgers have shot 37% from 3 in Big Ten road opportunities.
I’m slightly worried about the projected pace, which could be slow. But I expect uber-efficient half-court offense for 40 minutes.
Three straight games between these two have gone over the closing total. Wisconsin and Purdue games are a combined 28-20-1 to the over this season.
Nine of Purdue’s 13 home games have gone over, while seven of Wisconsin’s road games have gone over. Wisconsin games are 6-1 to the over when the Badgers are underdogs.
I’ll bank on more of the same.
