We’ve all seen the trendy data points about the Men’s NCAA Tournament and which teams have a chance to win a national championship because they fit this data point from KenPom, but what about on the women’s side?
Utilizing the valuable data from HerHoopStats, we can pinpoint three clear characteristics of the past 13 champions. All 13 champions ranked in the top 10 nationally in:
- HerHoopStats Offensive Rating
- HerHoopStats Defensive Rating
- Simple RPI
Until Angel Reese and the LSU Tigers won the national title last season, no national champion had a Simple RPI ranked worse than 3.
In terms of HerHoopStat’s Defensive Rating, last year’s runner-up, Iowa, was the lowest-ranked team of the last 13 seasons to even make it to a national championship game. Caitlin Clark’s 2022-23 squad ranked 48th nationally. No team had been ranked worse than 13th until Caitlin and Co. pulled off the impossible against South Carolina in the Final Four.
The parity is growing every year in women’s college basketball, and Clark is still around. So, for this exercise, let’s look at all the teams that rank in the top 25 of each stat above:
- 15 teams in the 68-team field meet the #25 threshold in all three categories.
- The bars shaded yellow indicate teams that rank in the top 10 in two of the three categories. Iowa, UCLA and LSU all happen to be in the Albany 2 Region.
- The bars shaded green feature the teams that fit the historical ranks of past national champions with all three stats sitting in the top 10 (South Carolina, Texas, Stanford and UConn).
Now that we have a decent baseline for which teams could win it all, let’s take a look at the Final Four odds by region.
Albany 1
As mentioned in my tournament preview, this region belongs to South Carolina. It would take a monumental upset to knock off the Gamecocks, so I'm risking only 0.2 units at most.
Ole Miss Rebels (+50000)
I spoke about Ole Miss in the tournament preview article, but it has same odds to make the Final Four as it does to win the national championship.
Oregon State Beavers (+1600)
Assuming Oregon State takes care of business at home in the first two rounds, it has a cross-country trip to Albany, where it will face either Ole Miss or Notre Dame.
Scott Rueck can coach with the best of 'em, and his team is worth a small bet here.
Albany 2
I can confidently say one of Iowa, LSU or UCLA is taking it here. With those three teams being so close to even, you have to take the best value.
UCLA Bruins (+450)
Looking at the LSU Elite Eight matchup, my data model has LSU vs. UCLA as a pick’em on a neutral court — not far off from HerHoopStats, which has LSU as a 2-point favorite.
While UCLA does struggle with athletes, it has the depth to throw a ton of bodies at LSU. At 6-foot-7, Lauren Betts is a force against anyone, but if she can get Angel Reese in foul trouble, then it’s a rout for the Bruins.
If they get by LSU, then the mission is simple: stop Caitlin Clark from putting up 38 and 10, and you’re on the road to Cleveland. That's easier said, than done, of course, but UCLA definitely holds the most value in this region.
Portland 3
Similar to the tournament preview article, I love the Huskies or the Buckeyes to come out of Portland, but I have a small sprinkle also.
Ohio State Buckeyes (+300)
This is probably the best value on the board for a team that knocked off UConn last season in the Sweet 16. Before losing their last two games of the regular season, the Buckeyes were the hottest team in the country not named South Carolina.
Ohio State won 14 straight conference games en route to a regular-season Big Ten title and was the only power conference team to cover every single game in February.
Duke Blue Devils (+3200)
In the tournament preview, I said this team is my sleeper of the region. The Blue Devils are the team nobody wants to play.
If they have a decent offensive game against Ohio State, I wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled off the upset in Columbus with how incredible Kara Lawson’s defense is.
Portland 4
Most simulations have Texas or Stanford making it out of here, but I wouldn’t count out one ACC team with strong value just yet.
NC State Wolfpack (+600)
I can comfortably say the Wolfpack feel slept on. They went from a projected 1-seed in February to barely securing a hosting spot in a matter of weeks.
Assuming there aren't any upsets, they would face No. 2 seed Stanford in the Sweet 16. Stanford struggles with athletic teams, NC State's guards has could feast on Stanford’s.
From there, you’re looking at a date with the Texas Longhorns, where anything could happen.
Final Four Futures
- Ole Miss +50000 (FanDuel · 0.2 Units)
- Oregon State +1600 (DraftKings · 0.2 Units)
- Duke +3200 (FanDuel · 0.2 Units)
- UCLA +450 (DraftKings · 0.5 Units)
- Ohio State +300 (DraftKings · 0.5 Units)
- NC State +600 (DraftKings · 0.5 Units)
