The Elite Eight gets underway on Sunday night as two teams will punch their ticket to the NCAA Women's Final Four.
Although all four number one seeds remain alive, the Sweet 16 was very competitive as six of the eight games were decided by eight or fewer points. Will this be the day when one of the top seeds finally goes down?
Let's take a look at the two matchups.
Women's NCAA Tournament Predictions
Creighton vs. South Carolina Odds
| Spread | South Carolina -13.5 |
| Over/Under | 124.5 |
| Moneyline | Creighton +740 / South Carolina -1250 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
After defeating the Tar Heels in the battle of the Carolinas, the South Carolina Gamecocks will take on the 10th-seeded Creighton Bluejays. While the defense has certainly been vital to the Gamecocks' success, the question they'll need to answer is whether they can generate enough offense to overcome their turnover woes.
South Carolina's 14.6 turnovers per game are the second-most among the eight remaining teams. That means South Carolina is losing quite a few possessions on offense which could be problematic should they fall behind by a wide margin, as they don't necessarily shoot the ball well from the perimeter.
The Gamecocks rank 253rd in the country with 4.9 3-pointers per game. That number hardly compares with the Bluejays, who average 10.2 3-pointers per game. Moreover, Florida Gulf Coast (11.5 3-point field goals per game) is the only school that averaged more 3-point field goals than Creighton.
Though the Gamecocks will likely try to extend their perimeter defense, the Bluejays are shooting 36.9% from beyond the arc, which is the 10th-best mark in the country. No one should expect Creighton to stop hoisting threes even if it experiences some struggles early on.
One game that stuck out to me for South Carolina was a meeting against Missouri on December 30. The Tigers are just one of two teams South Carolina has or will face this season that's made at least eight 3-pointers per game and averaged at least 20 attempts.
The second team will be Creighton, and South Carolina will hope for a different result after the Tigers handed the Gamecocks their first of only two losses on the season.
In terms of my projections for the game, I think the number makes sense as my model makes South Carolina a 12.5-point favorite. Given the current spread, I'd lean to taking the points with Creighton, but my model shows a more significant edge for the over— hence the reasoning above regarding Creighton's 3-point shooting prowess.
Pick: Over 124.5 (FanDuel)
Texas vs. Stanford Odds
| Spread | Stanford -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 127 |
| Moneyline | Texas +225 / Stanford -280 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
Texas is one of only three teams to defeat Stanford this season. On November 14, in Stanford's second game of the season, it lost 61-56 at home to the Longhorns. While the five-point loss was the most significant defeat for Stanford this year, the fact that it occurred so early in the season could be viewed as a positive.
Stanford committed 20 turnovers in the contest, which was above its average of 13.3 per game. It was a stiff lesson for a Cardinal team looking to find a new point guard following the graduation of Kiana Williams. Junior guard Haley Jones emerged as the primary ball-handler despite her six-foot-one frame. Unfortunately, she was responsible for five of the turnovers.
Jones has been much better in limiting turnovers throughout the season as she's averaging just 2.9 per game. Stanford should benefit from making the necessary adjustments after rewatching the tape from the earlier meeting.
Another thing that stood out to me in the game was that Stanford went just 4-of-27 (14.8%) from behind the 3-point line. That's quite a drop for a team that's shooting 35.9% from beyond the arc.
After running the numbers, my model makes Stanford a seven-point favorite in this rematch. With the current spread sitting at 6.5, there's not enough of an edge for me to get involved with either side.
As for the total, my model does show a slight lean to the over as I'd expect a much better shooting performance this time around from Stanford.
However, the bet I'd be looking to make before this game is to grab Stanford at +400 to win the national championship. Stanford's odds are longer than that of Connecticut (+250), and I think that's an error by the bookmakers considering that Huskies guard Paige Bueckers is still not at 100% following her return from a tibial plateau fracture and lateral meniscus tear.
Pick: Stanford +400 to win the title (DraftKings)
