The women’s Final Four tips off in Dallas, Texas, at 7 p.m. ET with Virginia Tech vs. LSU followed by Iowa vs. South Carolina.
My colleague from Spread the Floor, presented by Her Hoop Stats, Calvin Wetzel and I give our favorite prop bet for each team in the semifinal matchups, plus my best bet for Iowa vs South Carolina.
UPDATE: Iowa vs South Carolina will tip off at 9:47 p.m. ET.
Women's NCAA Tournament Final Four: Best Bet for Iowa vs South Carolina
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 1 South Carolina
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | +525 |
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | -750 |
Dano: I think it's key that Caitlin Clark gets off to a hot start. She's got to hit shots early, and they have to have that confidence that they can play with South Carolina. And we've seen teams do that. UConn did very well in the first half against South Carolina, and if you were on that game, you were able to get South Carolina live at plus-odds, which I think is the best course of action here (if it becomes available).
I personally do love the over based on some of the trends that I've seen with South Carolina playing some of these fast teams, these teams that have a similar pace to Iowa. The over in South Carolina game is 6-1 if you take out the Tennessee matchups, which plays a little bigger and slower.
South Carolina has been putting up points on these teams that play fast. They're going to dominate the offensive glass. If Iowa gets off to a hot start, they have a chance. But I really like the over here.
PICK: Over 150.5 | Live Bet South Carolina if plus-money
Action has partnered with Her Hoop Stats for coverage of the 2023 Women's NCAA Tournament — check Action for Dano Mataya's best gameday bets through the national championship!
Kamilla Cardoso Under 6.5 Rebounds (+102 · FanDuel)
The Gamecocks have a huge rebounding edge against every team they face, and the 6.5 rebounding line for 6-foot-7 Kamilla Cardoso might feel low. But in reality, she hasn’t been a strong force on the glass lately.
In South Carolina’s four tournament games, Cardoso has yet to grab six boards. With Iowa also attempting a lot of shots that lead to long rebounds, this also plays in our favor.
Caitlin Clark Under 9.5 Assists (-110 · DraftKings)
Betting against the recently-crowned National Player of the Year may seem like a mistake, especially when she's coming off of a historic 40-point triple-double.
But this isn’t as much of a bet against Clark as it is a bet on South Carolina’s defense. The Gamecocks are historically good on the defensive end of the floor and haven’t let an opposing player reach double figures in assists since 2018. Even 23 of their 36 opponents this season have gone under this number.
But it’s also a defense specifically designed to make this number extremely difficult to reach. Because the Gamecocks have the athletes to guard on an island, they don’t overhelp off of shooters.
According to Synergy, just 15.4% of their opponents' shots are spot-ups, the lowest mark in the country. They're in the bottom 2% in the same category for cutters as well.
South Carolina leads the nation by a wide margin with over 25% of opponent scoring coming from pick-and-roll ball-handlers, so they may make Clark try to beat her with her scoring rather than her passing.
No. 3 LSU vs. No. 1 Virginia Tech
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 134 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 134 -110o / -110u | +115 |
Georgia Amoore Over 3.5 Made 3s (-113 · FanDuel)
If it weren’t for Caitlin Clark, Georgia Amoore might be the biggest story of the tournament so far.
The junior guard is on another level as of late, scoring 20-plus points in six straight games going back to the ACC Tournament.
A big reason why? She’s simply been shooting more.
She leads the country in 3-point attempts per game on the season at 9.3, but that number has risen to a whopping 12.5 over that six-game stretch. Her usage rate on the season sits at 25.3, but it has been above 31% in all six of those games.
Expect that trend to continue against an LSU defense that ranks in the bottom third of the country in 3-point rate allowed, letting opponents get over 30% of their shots from deep.
If your book doesn’t have 3s made, pivoting to a points over is a good look as well.
Alexis Morris Under 4.5 Assists (-120 · DraftKings)
LSU has been led all season by Alexis Morris and Angel Reese, who make up nearly 47% of LSU’s scoring this season.
The Tigers are going to depend on the scoring of their two most-trusted scorers against a tough Virginia Tech defense, so I expect Morris to be hunting for more shots tonight.
Morris has tallied more than four assists only once this tournament and two times in her last seven games.
