Xavier vs Purdue Odds
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
The Xavier Musketeers will travel to West Lafayette to take on the Purdue Boilermakers in what will be another terrific game of action in the Gavitt Games. This is an interesting matchup due to the fact that these teams are the polar opposites in returning production.
Xavier had a terrific season last year, but this season, there are a ton of new faces entering the fold. It's going to take some time for this group to gel.
As for Purdue, we all know what happened last season. Luckily for the Boilers, this is a roster returning a ton of talent, including Player of the Year Zach Edey.
This seems to be a lopsided matchup on paper, but let's break down both of these teams and uncover some betting value with Xavier vs Purdue prediction and the latest CBB odds today.
Xavier Musketeers
It's astonishing the amount of talent this Xavier team lost from a year ago. The key departures include Colby Jones, Jack Nunge, Souley Boum and Adam Kunkel.
That's a ton of production to lose, and that's the biggest cause of concern heading into this matchup. Simply put, the Musketeers are playing in a tough environment early in the year with a roster that hasn't gotten a chance to gel.
However, I do believe this offense can have some success. With the small data points that have been collected thus far, I have a feeling there will be opportunities to score from the outside.
The biggest key to attacking Purdue's defense is to get Edey outside of his comfort zone. The best way to do that is to get him outside of the paint and screen his way into a mismatch with a dominant ball handler.
Western Kentucky transfer Dayvion McKnight is a terrific ball handler, and he has the offensive repertoire to put Edey on ice skates. I expect a lot of ball screens to be dialed up from Sean Miller in order to create as many mismatches as possible.
My biggest worry is where the Musketeers will get the rest of their scoring, considering it's going to be nearly impossible to match up with the Boilermakers inside. I doubt they even attempt to go inside unless they're on a fast break.
Purdue Boilermakers
It's much easier to break down this Boilermakers team with all of the experience they have returning. Not only do they have the presence of Edey inside, but they've added 7-foot-2 freshman big man Will Berg.
Between Berg and Edey, they're going to give a ton of opposing frontcourts trouble all season long. This is a matchup they should completely dominate on the glass, and they will eliminate any sort of offensive scoring on the inside.
Purdue has looked the part in limited action thus far, clearly demonstrating why it's the No. 1 team on KenPom. So far, the Boilers are No. 1 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and seventh in Defensive Efficiency.
These data points are obviously from small sample sizes, but it's even more impressive that they're shooting 46% from beyond the arc. If they're able to consistently hit their 3s, this is going to be a dangerous team heading into March.
In this spot, the Boilermakers should completely dominate on both sides of the floor, and with such a huge height advantage I would expect them to stifle the Xavier offense.
I'd be completely stunned if this game was competitive late in the second half.
Xavier vs. Purdue
Betting Pick & Prediction
I hate playing large numbers in college basketball, and even though I see such a huge talent and experience discrepancy, I would rather take a different approach. The play to me is the under, and I think it has a lot to do with Purdue's defensive advantage in this spot.
It's really tough to gauge how good teams are early on in the year with limited data, especially teams that don't have any experience returning. I think if we knew a little more about this Xavier team I would lean towards backing it in this spot.
Purdue will use its size and experience to stifle any sort of offensive rhythm Xavier tries to establish. It's important to note that the Musketeers have yet to go fast on offense like they did all of last season.
I respect Miller as a coach, but I doubt he'll have any answers for Edey and company. Expect Purdue to dominate from the opening tip.
Pick: Under 150 (Play to 148)
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