The Xavier Musketeers take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, OH. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Cincinnati is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -298. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Xavier vs. Cincinnati predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
Xavier vs Cincinnati Prediction
My Pick: Under 142 or Better
My Xavier vs Cincinnati best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Xavier vs Cincinnati Odds
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 144.5 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 144.5 -110 / -110 | -298 |
- Xavier vs Cincinnati spread: Cincinnati -7.5
- Xavier vs Cincinnati over/under: 144.5 points
- Xavier vs Cincinnati moneyline: Xavier -298, Cincinnati +240
- Xavier vs Cincinnati best bet: Under 142 or Better
Spread
I have no bet on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm avoiding the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm taking the under at 142 or better.
My Pick: Under 142 or Better
Xavier vs Cincinnati College Basketball Betting Preview
Xavier Basketball
Head coach Sean Miller has to be thrilled with how his team has performed thus far, especially after a complete thrashing of Morgan State. On Tuesday, Xavier won the matchup 119-58, a complete and utter destruction.
But the Musketeers must mellow out their expectations heading into Saturday, as the Bearcats are a dark horse to win the Big 12.
Xavier has maintained the bragging rights over the last several years in Cincinnati, as the Bearcats have been a different program since Mick Cronin departed for UCLA.
The Musketeers have had the benefit of a soft schedule to start this season (outside the top 300 in SOS), but they will be tested on Saturday on the road.
It will be challenging to penetrate a stingy Bearcats defense that ranks among the top 15 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Despite their talent, it's tough to replicate the type of shooting performance they had against Morgan State.
Xavier is also due for negative shooting regression from beyond the arc. Thus far, the Musketeers are shooting 40% from deep, despite ranking outside the top 200 in attempts from that area. The Bearcats are a terrific team defending the perimeter, so shooting struggles could come throughout the evening.
The Musketeers are 125th in Rim and 3 Rate, proving that their offensive prowess thus far has not been as successful. They will also be at a depth disadvantage, and their edge at the free throw line will not come into effect against a Bearcats defense that hardly ever fouls.
The Musketeers have been torched from deep early in the year, which does not bode well here, either. Xavier is in a terrible spot, and there is a reason it will be heavy underdogs heading into the matchup.
Cincinnati Basketball
The Bearcats have rebounded since losing to Villanova last week, especially with Dan Skillings Jr. returning to the lineup.
Skillings provides a ton of scoring depth to an already deep Bearcats team, and Wes Miller's club is very much for real.
Bearcats nation has been waiting for its program to make some noise in March, and Saturday could set the tone for the rest of the season. If the Bearcats can dominantly defend their home court, the remainder of the Big 12 should be on high alert.
Starting with the offense, they have been an outstanding team protecting the basketball and have been able to score from all areas of the floor. My lone gripe with the offense is their poor free throw shooting, as there is plenty of room for improvement with a 59% clip.
Between Skillings, Jizzle James and Simas Lukosius, they are nearly impossible to defend consistently. They are also one of the lengthiest and deepest teams in not only the Big 12 but the entire country.
They failed to step up against Villanova last week, but that was without Skillings. I am concerned with their 215th rank in Rim and 3 Rate, which suggests some offensive regression is on the horizon.
Their 3-point shooting has been insane so far, so I expect those numbers to dip. Xavier is due for better fortune defending the triple, which could immediately come into play on Saturday.
The Bearcats rank 283rd in tempo, so we could see fewer possessions from both teams, especially with the Bearcats' tenacious defense coming into effect.
I expect the Bearcats to win the battle on the boards, and I would be surprised if the Musketeers left the Fifth Third Arena with a win.
Xavier vs. Cincinnati Betting Analysis
I am not in love with backing the Bearcats laying roughly 10 points at home, so I will target the under.
I would look to back Xavier here, but given its recent offensive explosion on Tuesday, I have too much fear of shooting regression coming into play.
I'm also not convinced that the Musketeers will be able to consistently crack through against the Bearcats' defense, especially since they are an extremely disciplined unit.
Both teams have yet to be challenged consistently thus far, so I don't have a strong gauge of how elite their offenses are yet. It's a bad spot for Xavier, and I expect both offenses to struggle much more than the public will perceive.
