The Xavier Musketeers take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on CBS.
Illinois is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here are my Xavier vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for March 21, 2025.
Xavier Musketeers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Xavier ML +140
My Xavier vs Illinois best bet is on the Musketeers moneyline, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Xavier vs. Illinois Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
- Xavier vs Illinois spread: Illinois -4.5, Xavier +4.5
- Xavier vs Illinois over/under: 161.5
- Xavier vs Illinois moneyline: Illinois -190, Xavier +155
- Xavier vs Illinois best bet: Xavier ML +140
Xavier vs. Illinois March Madness Pick, Betting Analysis
Once upon a time, it appeared Illinois had a chance for a three or four seed. However, bumpy play down the stretch and a seemingly never-ending string of illnesses held the Illini to a 12-8 Big Ten record.
I circled this matchup when the bracket came out. For a moment, Xavier looked buried versus Texas in the First Four, but the Musketeers pulled out the win late. That means we get a chance for this upset.
I just don't have a lot of faith in Illinois. Nobody in the country has more variance solely based on shooting than the Illini. They attempt 3s on nearly half of their possessions, but they shoot just 31%.
The best shooter on Illinois' roster is Ben Humrichous at 35%, and the two main ball-handlers — Will Riley and Kasparas Jakucionis — shoot only 32%.
Since February 1, Illinois is shooting just 30% from deep. If that trend continues, I can't see the Illini beating an Xavier team that's playing really well.
Oddly, Illinois rarely plays close games. In the past eight outings, the Fighting Illini have had one game finish within single-digits — an eight-point win over Purdue. Four were double-digit losses, and three were double-digit wins.
Perhaps the most worrisome thing about Illinois is its defense. The Illini rank 150th in Bart Torvik's defensive efficiency since February 1.
The Musketeers should dominate the 3-point battle, as they're shooting 41% from deep in their last 11 games.
We got a taste of Xavier's shooting dominance when it posted a 12-of-25 (48%) showing versus Texas. The wild part is Ryan Conwell — who scored 38 points in Xavier's Big East Tournament loss to Marquette — scored just 11 points due to foul trouble.
The wing trio of Conwell, Dante Maddox Jr. and Marcus Foster is the perfect swing in Xavier's direction.
Illinois has a clear size advantage. The tallest player Xavier starts is 6-foot-9 Zach Freemantle, who's on the court for offensive purposes. In contrast, Illinois will start 7-foot-1 center Tomislav Ivisic and occasionally plays 6-foot-9 freshman Morez Johnson Jr. alongside him.
Although Xavier is the smaller team, rebounding isn't a problem. In fact, the Musketeers have had the second-best defensive rebounding percentage since February 1.
The Illini are in the top 50 in offensive rebound rate during the same span, so keep an eye on Xavier's rebounding against the never-ending jumpers.
The best way to beat Illinois is by containing the pick-and-roll. That's an area Xavier excels in, ranking in the 72nd percentile.
I expect a very high-tempo game. Illinois sits 18th in adjusted tempo, and Xavier is in the top 80 in the same metric. The only difference is that Xavier wants to run in transition whenever possible, ranking in the 93rd percentile in transition scoring, while Illinois ranks in the 43rd percentile in transition defense.
I'm not sure if the path to beating Xavier includes playing at an even faster pace. That would lead to plenty of runout opportunities for one of the nation's best transition offenses.
My skepticism of Illinois dates back a couple of months, and there's nothing lately that's changed my opinion.
Plus, Xavier has been a top-25 team in college basketball over the past month and a half, and Illinois is barely top-40.
My pick? The 3.5-point 'dog on the moneyline.
