The Xavier Musketeers take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas. Tip-off is set for 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
TCU is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Xavier vs. TCU predictions and college basketball picks for December 5, 2024.
Xavier vs TCU Prediction
My Pick: Over 144.5
My Xavier vs TCU best bet is on over, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Xavier vs TCU Odds, Lines, Pick
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
- Xavier vs TCU spread: Xavier -1
- Xavier vs TCU over/under: 146.5 points
- Xavier vs TCU moneyline: TCU -120, Xavier +100
- Xavier vs TCU best bet: Over 144.5
My Xavier vs TCU College Basketball Betting Preview
Xavier Basketball
Both Xavier and TCU have fallen short of expectations one month into the season. Xavier has fallen 32 spots in KenPom and sports a 3-5 record against the spread. TCU has fallen 24 spots and has been one of the worst ATS teams in the country at just 1-6. This game is massive for both programs’ NCAA Tournament hopes and could be the first step towards waking up from sleepy starts.
Xavier has two speeds on the offensive end: 1) Transition and 2) Post. The Musketeers, first and foremost, look to push in the open floor, ranking in the 96th percentile nationally in transition possessions, per Synergy. The Horned Frogs have been downright awful stopping transition, ranking in the 11th percentile in points per possession allowed on the run (Synergy). While TCU generally does a solid job backpedaling on defense and getting set, any looseness with the ball from guards Frankie Collins or Noah Reynolds could mean quick points going the other way.
Zach Freemantle is the main man in the middle when the Muskies settle in the halfcourt. He’s been excellent this year coming off injury, averaging 15.6 PPG and 7.8 RPG. TCU has been a sieve at the rim this season, ranking 305th in FGA% allowed at the rim and 232nd in FG% allowed at the rim, per CBB Analytics.
Ernest Udeh is a true rim protector and a force in the paint, but any foul trouble from him could spell doom – and Freemantle will look to stretch him out to the perimeter to create space and mismatches on the offensive end.
TCU Basketball
TCU’s offense has been stagnant all season, ranking just 165th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. If the season ended today, that would be Jamie Dixon’s worst offense of his 22-year career. A lack of shooting and a mind-boggling 59.1% clip from the foul line has turned the Frogs into a brick factory on offense.
Like Xavier, TCU wants to run – heck, you would too if you couldn’t shoot. And the Frogs have found success when they’re able to push into the open floor. Their primary catalyst for transition possessions is turnovers, ranking 12th nationally in FGA% in transition following a turnover per Hoop-Math. Xavier has rock-steady guards, but this TCU perimeter is no joke and super long.
The Muskies have been an excellent transition defense thus far in 2024 – they don’t allow it, and they force misses at a high rate. If they can shut down TCU’s ability to score on the run, this game will be well within their favor.
Xavier vs. TCU Betting Analysis
Xavier has far more firepower and many thought it could be a top 15 or even top 10 team heading into the year. That ceiling still exists and the turnaround could start tonight. Of course, this is also Xavier’s first true road game of the season, and TCU has one of the best home-court advantages in the country, per KenPom. We’ve seen teams across the country struggle in these situations, and Xavier might be no different.
With both teams yearning to run, this one could get up their possessions. Instead of taking Xavier in a tough road spot, we’ll ride with the over and root for points like a good American.
