The Xavier Musketeers take on the Texas Longhorns in the NCAA Tournament First Four. Tip-off is set for 9:10 p.m. ET on truTV.
Xavier is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here’s my Xavier vs Texas predictions and college basketball picks for March 19, 2025.
Xavier vs Texas Prediction
My Pick: Xavier -2.5 (Play to -3)
My Xavier vs Texas best bet is on the Musketeers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Xavier vs Texas Odds
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
- Xavier vs Texas spread: Xavier -2.5
- Xavier vs Texas over/under: 151.5 points
- Xavier vs Texas moneyline: Xavier -166, Texas +140
- Xavier vs Texas best bet: Xavier -2.5 (Play to -3)
Spread
Xavier is trending extremely well lately and has a coaching advantage in this game. I'll lay the 2.5 (up to -3) with the Musketeers.
Moneyline
Opting to back Xavier on the moneyline could be a sound strategy, as this game could be close. I'm more comfortable laying a tight number thanks to Xavier's elite free throw shooting.
Over/Under
The outcome of the total here is highly dependent on shot making. Though both teams are excellent in this department, there's too much variance in there for me to bet it.
My Pick: Xavier -2.5 (Play to -3)
Xavier vs Texas College Basketball Betting Preview
The Longhorns snuck into the field as one of the last teams in, giving the SEC an incredible 14 bids. The Longhorns’ bevy of quality wins were the difference-maker, offsetting their 15 total losses and poor non-conference schedule.
Texas’ biggest strength is its quartet of individual scorers. Tre Johnson is the jewel of the bunch, a future NBA player who can sink some absurdly difficult jumpers when he catches fire.
Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark are fully capable self-creators, as well, and Texas can pick on weaker defenders when those three share the court.
Arthur Kaluma is also a tough matchup thanks to his size and ability to pull bigger defenders away from the rim.
Though all four of those guys can be effective in the right instances, Texas is at its best when Johnson is cooking. The other three (and the coaching staff) would do well to remember this, rather than allowing Johnson to get buried while they fire away.
In Texas' SEC Tournament loss to Tennessee, Johnson took just eight field goals, less than all of Pope, Mark and Kaluma.
All four have a similar shortcoming, though: They don't get many shots at the rim, and only Kaluma gets to the foul line with much regularity.
They live in the mid-range, and that’s an overall issue for Texas, which ranks 350th in the country in Rim & 3 Rate, per ShotQuality. Instead, the Horns rely on their sublime shot making, but they can experience droughts if those tough shots stop falling.
Defensively, Texas is solid but unspectacular. Kadin Shedrick is a stout presence inside, but the Horns don't force many turnovers, and they foul like crazy, allowing foes to get easy points at the charity stripe.
On the bright side, Texas’ overall switchability on the perimeter can force tough isolation possessions, and it also helps limit catch-and-shoot jumpers.
Meanwhile, the Musketeers snuck in the Big Dance despite only claiming one Quad 1 win, and the uproar over UNC making it with the same resume shortcoming has fully allowed them to sneak under the radar.
Still, this team is playing well of late, having won seven of the last eight, with the only loss coming by two in the Big East Tournament.
Over that timeframe, Xavier ranks 18th in the country, per Bart Torvik.
This is a lethal perimeter shooting team. The Musketeers are top-10 nationally in both 3-point percentage and free throw percentage.
Led by star transfer Ryan Conwell, who's fresh off a 38-point explosion in the Big East Tournament and is averaging 20.9 points per game in the last eight games, and fellow deep threats Dante Maddox Jr. and Marcus Foster, Xavier unsurprisingly has tremendous spacing (29th nationally, per ShotQuality).
That gives Zach Freemantle room to operate around the basket, and the skilled sixth-year forward knows what to do with it. He ranks in the 83rd percentile in points per possession on post ups and the 73rd percentile as a roll man in ball screens, per Synergy.
His dance partner in those pick-and-rolls is typically Dayvion McKnight, a broad-shouldered lefty point guard who excels at getting downhill off the bounce.
Athletic wing Dailyn Swain is also an expert at slashing through the gaps created by Xavier’s spacing.
A preseason injury to big man Lassina Traore forced Freemantle into extended minutes at center, as transfer pickup John Hugley IV has simply not been able to stay on the floor as a slower big man that doesn't block shots.
The Musketeers’ rim defense is soft as a result, and Xavier ranked just eighth in the 11-team Big East in 2-point percentage allowed.
The Musketeers make up for that weakness by dominating the defensive glass (Freemantle, Swain and Foster are all tremendous rebounders for their positions) and avoiding fouling.
The latter part is key, as Xavier doesn't have much depth (322nd nationally in Bench Minutes, per KenPom).
This matchup is a fun battle of terrific shot-makers on both sides. It also features two teams that could've been left out of the field without too much uproar, so they should be playing with some house money.
Despite Texas’ gaudy Quad 1 win total, Xavier actually rates as better against quality competition. Filtering Bart Torvik only for games against Quad 1/Quad 2 foes, Xavier ranks 39th, while Texas is down at 57th.
And in that same span where Xavier ranks 18th (since Feb. 12, basically the last month), Texas lands 61st.
Texas’ penchant for hacking is a boon for Xavier’s offense. The Musketeers led the Big East in free throw rate, and as mentioned above, they're elite when they get there (over 80% in league play).
Additionally, the Longhorns’ comfort in the mid-range lets Xavier’s shaky rim defense off the hook. In Swain and Foster, the Musketeers have two stout big wing defenders to throw at Texas’ scorers, and McKnight should hold up decently against Pope.
Finally, in my assessment, the Musketeers have a coaching edge here. Rodney Terry’s seat has been varying degrees of “warm” or “hot” this season, and even this NCAA Tournament bid may not save his job. Sean Miller, on the other hand, is very good coach with a long track record of success.
As an added tiny bonus, Freemantle and Jerome Hunter are seeking some measure of revenge for a 2023 Sweet 16 loss to Texas. Yes, that was two years ago, but revenge is a dish best served cold.
