The Xavier Musketeers take on the Villanova Wildcats in Philadelphia, PA. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on FS1.
Villanova is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -164. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Here are my Xavier vs. Villanova predictions and college basketball picks for February 9, 2025.
Xavier vs Villanova Prediction
My Pick: Villanova -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
My Xavier vs Villanova best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Xavier vs Villanova Odds
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 141.5 -110 / -110 | +136 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 141.5 -110 / -110 | -164 |
- Xavier vs Villanova spread: Villanova -3.5
- Xavier vs Villanova over/under: 141.5 points
- Xavier vs Villanova moneyline: Villanova -164, Xavier +136
- Xavier vs Villanova best bet: Villanova -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
Spread
I'm taking the Cats on the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm not targeting the total.
My Pick: Villanova -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
Xavier vs Villanova College Basketball Betting Preview
Xavier’s NCAA Tournament hopes are on life support, but it isn't quite dead. Trying to keep their heads above water, the Muskies need this one to keep their postseason bid chances alive and move above .500 in the Big East.
Villanova has fallen back to Earth after its hot Big East start, stumbling to a 2-5 mark in its last seven games. The Cats need a miracle conference tournament run to punch a ticket, and their coach Kyle Neptune is squarely on the hot seat.
Xavier took the first game of this series this season, beating Nova by six in a dramatic affair. But that final score was extremely misleading. Nova led the entire way and likely would've won if it weren’t for some other-worldly heroics by Xavier guard Ryan Conwell.
For Xavier to pull a sweep, it'll need Conwell to be at his best again and for Nova star Eric Dixon to have another “off day” at the office, as he did in the first game, going just 3-of-11 from 2.
The Muskies lived at the free throw line in the first matchup, which is unsurprising given their league-leading free throw attempt rate and Nova’s propensity to foul.
Xavier’s 26 free throw attempts to Nova’s 14 was huge in deciding the first game, and it'll need similar dominance in this one to pull out the road win.
Per usual, Xavier will play through Zach Freemantle, its offensive hub, but Sean Miller also runs a ton of ball screens for Conwell and point guard Dayvion McKnight. Nova has been solid defending the post, the rim and ball screens this season, but Xavier’s big three is talented and they're threats to make plays.
Xavier is at its best in transition, where it ranks in the 96th percentile nationally at 1.209 PPP. Compare that to just 0.930 PPP in the half-court (66th percentile), and it’s clear why the Muskies want to get out in the open floor.
The problem is Villanova has an excellent transition defense – it’s the strength of the team, and Xavier scored just 0.444 PPP in the open floor in the first game. If Xavier can't get to the line, it'll be very difficult to score against the Cats.
Nova has the best player in this game in Dixon, a matchup nightmare for just about everyone in the country. Miller game-planned for him pretty well in the first game, sending doubles and forcing Dixon to give up the rock.
To Dixon’s credit, he found open shooters regularly, but he also struggled to score inside the arc.
Xavier likely throws a similar look at Dixon, but it’s unlikely we see the same finishing struggles as we did in the first game. Dixon is Nova’s rock offensively. The Cats play through him in the post and let him go one-on-one whenever possible.
Outside of Dixon, Nova is one of the heaviest ball-screen teams in the country, and Jhamir Brickus has one of the highest ball-screen usages among players.
Xavier defended the pick-and-roll well in the first game, limiting ball handlers to just 0.667 PPP off screens. The Muskies’ big, athletic perimeter can give the smaller Brickus issues.
This game should be another low-scoring slog, with Nova unwilling to run and Xavier unable to run. Scoring will be difficult for both teams in the half-court.
Nova should've won the first meeting and has the best player on the floor; shooting splits will likely swing back in the Cats’ favor, and if they can keep the free throw discrepancy relatively close, they should walk away with a victory.
