The Yale Bulldogs take on the Dartmouth Big Green in Hanover, NH. Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Yale is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -370. The total is set at 156 points.
Here are my Yale vs. Dartmouth predictions and college basketball picks for February 28, 2025.
Yale vs Dartmouth Prediction
My Pick: Yale -10 or Better
My Yale vs Dartmouth best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Yale vs Dartmouth Odds, Spread, Pick
| Yale Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 156 -110 / -110 | -370 |
| Dartmouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 156 -110 / -110 | +290 |
- Yale vs Dartmouth spread: Yale -7.5
- Yale vs Dartmouth over/under: 156 points
- Yale vs Dartmouth moneyline: Yale -370, Dartmouth +290
- Yale vs Dartmouth best bet: Yale -10 or Better
My Yale vs Dartmouth College Basketball Betting Preview
I still think Dartmouth is among the most overvalued teams in the nation.
Yes, Dave McLaughlin and Rich Glesmann have done a tremendous job transforming the offense. Still, the Big Green struggle with turnovers, are small on the interior and are highly reliant on 3-point variance.
Lucky for them, the variance overlords have been hanging out in Hanover all year.
Since February 1, Dartmouth has won five of six. During that stretch, the Big Green have shot 40% from 3 while their opponents have shot 22%. Most recently, they beat Princeton by shooting 9-for-29 (31%) from deep while the Tigers shot 8-for-34 (24%).
Their up-tempo, dribble hand-off offense shoots at high volume, so they’re hard to beat when they’re making everything.
But they also allow 37 paint points per game (seventh percentile, per CBB Analytics) and are the worst shot-volume team in the league (-74 FGA differential, per CBB Analytics), so they can get ripped apart in games with more typical shooting splits.
For example, the Big Green are 3-8 in games where they shoot under 35% from 3 and 2-8 in games where their opponents shoot at least 30%.
Thus, if we see typical 3-point shooting splits, I expect the class of the Ivy to obliterate Dartmouth.
Yale is a dominant offense, leading the league in effective field goal percentage (57%), turnover rate (14%), offensive rebounding rate (34%), free throw rate (31%) and paint points per game (42). The Bulldogs are 11-0 in conference play for a reason.
These two met in early January in New Haven, and Yale won by 16. Both teams shot poorly from 3, but the Bulldogs dominated the shot-volume battle (73 to 55) and dropped in 50 paint points on the Big Green’s vulnerable interior.
The Bulldogs play primarily through Nick Townsend in the post, but they surround him with shooters and cutters. I expect that to be a problem for Dartmouth’s brutal post-up (1.01 PPP allowed, sixth percentile) and cutting (1.24 PPP allowed, 24th percentile) defense.
In the first matchup, Yale scored 21 points on 21 combined post-up and cutting sets (1.00 PPP). I expect more of the same in the rematch.
Unless Dartmouth earns some more lucky shooting variance — which could happen, given Yale’s compact defense — I fully expect the dominant Bulldogs to overwhelm the overvalued Big Green on the boards and in the paint.
