The second round of the NBA Playoffs features a slew of fun matchups between the new guard of the NBA's elite.
In the Western Conference, we'll see the Nuggets face the Timberwolves and the Thunder face the Mavericks for a chance to make the conference finals. In the Eastern Conference, we'll see the revival of an old postseason rivalry between the Knicks and Pacers.
Series lines for each matchup are out and we'll be tracking all the movement throughout Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs. Here's a look at the odds for those series and some analysis from our experts.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves Odds to Win Series
| Nuggets | Timberwolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | +400 | -550 |
| Win in 4 | +110 | |
| Win in 5 | +500 | |
| Win in 6 | +1400 | +375 |
| Win in 7 | +650 | +1200 |
After Game 2: The Timberwolves won Games 1 and 2 on the road and are -550 to win the series as they head back to Minnesota for two games. The Wolves opened the series at +1600 to sweep. After Game 1, the Timberwolves moved to +600 to sweep and after Game 2, they are down to +110.
After Game 1: The Timberwolves stole Game 1 and moved from +165 'dog in the series to -120 favorites. The Nuggets moved from -200 favorites to even money.
The Nuggets are the favorites in this series and have home-court advantage as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. These two teams play in the same conference and these teams split their season series 2-2 in the regular season.
The series odds ahead of Game 1 have moved slightly from open — Nuggets went from -225 to -200 and Timberwolves moved from +180 to +165 at BetMGM. According to John Ewing, 62% of tickets are on the Wolves to win the series, while 64% of the money is on the Nuggets.
How Our Experts are Betting the Series
Brandon Anderson: If I could pick a winner straight up, I'd pick Denver. But bettors don't get to create their own odds, and I can't get to Denver -190 where the Nuggets are priced, implying over 65% of winning.
How about Nuggets -1.5 on the series line at +100, meaning Denver in six or less? That would typically be my pivot, but that means sacrificing that sweet home Game 7 in altitude, a winner-take-all spot for the team with the best player and all the clutch and experience edges. Game 7 is the one game I'd be most confident of a winner in this series — I can't sacrifice that.
Even though I think Denver is more likely to win the series, I can't escape feeling that the numbers leave an edge on Minnesota, not Denver.
Prediction: Timberwolves in 6 (+550)
Read more of Anderson's analysis, including his series winner and props.
Knicks vs Pacers Odds to Win Series
| Knicks | Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | -400 | +300 |
| Win in 4 | +450 | |
| Win in 5 | +225 | +1800 |
| Win in 6 | +450 | +700 |
| Win in 7 | +425 | +1000 |
After Game 1: The Knicks moved from -250 to -400 after their series opening win while the Pacers moved from +200 to +300 to win outright.
The Knicks are -250 favorites to win this series against the Pacers after playing a grueling six games in Round 1. Knicks vs Pacers has plenty of history behind it. These two teams have met in the playoffs seven times and the Pacers have won four of those series, including two as the underdog entering Game 1. According to Patrick Everson of Vegas Insider, the Pacers are getting 65% of tickets, while 64% of the money is on the Knicks to win the series.
How Our Experts are Betting the Series
Brandon Anderson: Books clearly expect a Knicks win, leaving our options a bit limited with steep pricing.
It doesn't feel great backing Tom Thibodeau against Rick Carlisle, one of the better coaches in the league, but that looks like something to be careful with game-to-game playing against the spread. Carlisle is a bigger advantage if the games or series are close, and I don't expect either of those things.
Thibodeau's teams have never been in a sweep, and they rarely go seven either. Four of his five career series wins ended in five or six games. Either it works or it doesn't.
Prediction: Knicks in 5 +310, Knicks in 6 +470
Read more of Anderson's analysis, including his series winner and props.
Thunder vs Mavericks Odds to Win Series
| Thunder | Mavericks | |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | -120 | +100 |
| Win in 4 | +1300 | +1400 |
| Win in 5 | +550 | +725 |
| Win in 6 | +525 | +450 |
| Win in 7 | +425 | +550 |
The Thunder opened as slight favorites to win their second-round series against the Mavericks. The Thunder won the regular season series 3-1, but their last meeting came in Game 82 and the Mavericks sat most of their starters for the game.
How Our Experts are Betting the Series
Brandon Anderson: This is a really tough series. I have the Thunder a clear tier ahead of the Mavs, but Dallas has some real matchup advantages on the glass and at the line, and the 3-point variance could make this series quite unpredictable.
Books are right to price this series so close, and I think it goes long. Doncic has played in six playoff series and all but one have gone at least six games. His teams are 5-1 against the series spread.
This is a small bet for me, and I'll split my bet between Thunder in 6 (+650) and Thunder in 7 (+440). That gives us an implied +213 and an option to pivot or add to our portfolio later.
Prediction: Thunder in 6 (+650), Thunder in 7 (+440)
Read more of Anderson's analysis, including his series winner and props.
Celtics vs Cavaliers Odds to Win Series
| Celtics | Cavaliers | |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | -1400 | +800 |
| Win in 4 | +190 | +10000 |
| Win in 5 | +170 | +6600 |
| Win in 6 | +425 | +1800 |
| Win in 7 | +575 | +2500 |
The Celtics will Cavaliers in their second-round series as massive favorites. They are the biggest series favorite in the second round or later since 2018 when the Houston Rockets faced the Utah Jazz. The Celtics won the regular season series 2-1, but the one Cavaliers win featured one of the biggest fourth-quarter comeback wins of the season.
How Our Experts are Betting the Series
Matt Moore: The Celtics are very successful, but they will screw around for a certain number of games in a series.
Some of it is not actually them screwing around. Against the Hawks last year, they screwed around twice. Against the Sixers, they screwed around twice, then got beat straight up once. The other team cam can just win a game versus the Celtics even this iteration.
The question becomes, do you think this Cavaliers team is better than the Heat without Jimmy Butler and a limited Duncan Robinson? If they are healthy, I believe this Cavaliers team is one game better than the Heat without Butler and a limited Robinson.
Prediction: Cavaliers Series Spread +2.5 (+145)
Get more of analysis from Moore on this series and more on the Buckets Podcast.
