49ers vs. Browns Odds & Betting Predictions - October 15, 2023

FanDuel

Study hall great white orca king of the sea play

#ConvinceMe

@ChrisRaybon

Dating back to last season, Deebo has played 5 games with CMC, and without Elijah Mitchell. In those games, Deebo got 4, 4, 5, 3, 5 rush attempts - Mitchell is questionable, but likely will be limited if he goes. But this game also sets up really nicely for the 49ers to dominate the ball. PJ Walker is going for CLE, and he should struggle against the SF defense (as every QB pretty much has). SF is third in the NFL in time of possession as is. And the weather is going to factor. It’s going to be difficult to move the ball through the air with wind/rain. Shanahan will have to get creative, which should lead to some more Deebo rushes. CMC will get his - but it’s a sneaky opportunity to get Deebo touches on the ground. Yes, CLE’s defense is strong. But I have Deebo at 5 rush attempts - he’s been a 5+ YPC each of the last three seasons - even regressing to the 3.2 YPC CLE allows should get him there. I have him at about 19 yards - but since this is extremely variable in terms of volume, I’d only play this up to 14.5.

Unders 37 and below since Nov 2019 are 19-5 with misses at 38, 39, 40, and 41. When it's this low, it's this low for a reason.

Via @wheatonbrando

Number has now moved seven points off the open.

Big Balls Bet of the Week

I bet it at 5.5, hit it again at 7. Our big balls bet of the week on @TheFavoritesPodcast.