49ers vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2023

49ers have owned the Rams during the regular season. Kupp' absence will be felt here.

Stafford can beat these corners. He’s over this number in 23/27 Rams games (85%) and 3 of the under were his final games injured last season before shutting it down. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-2-2023

Tight ends against the 49ers is like a death trap - sixth fewest YPC and fourth fewest yards per target last season. Last week was more of the same, with Steelers tight ends registering 22 yards on 8 targets (long of 11). Part of the reason is tight ends will need to help in pass protection against the 49ers d line, then have to deal with the likes of Werner, Greenlaw and Hafuanga in coverage. Higbee is not fast enough to be a concern on the deep balls or with YAC. Last season, Higbee long catch was 12 yards in two games vs the 49ers (despite 20 targets and 12 catches). Atwell and Jefferson figure to command the deep shots with PUCA NAKUA dominating intermediate targets (or Skrowronek if Puka doesn’t play). Would play down to u15.5.

Available at FanDuel. My model was on the Rams' spread in Week 1, so I'm not surprised we're here again after how they performed. The key thing is that Matthew Stafford looked healthy, something that boosts the Rams' entire team from where preseason models had them when playing out the full season. The defense also stepped up, though it was aided by injuries to Seattle's offensive line. It's possible that the 49ers are just a juggernaut that my model can't catch up to. I'm fully open to that possibility. But for now, I do think taking 8 points on the home team is the right move.