Falcons vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - December 31, 2023

Falcons at Bears

6:00 pm • CBS

Atlanta Falcons

7-7

17 - 37

Chicago Bears

4-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Falcons 7-7	+2.5	+2.5+100	o39-112	+125
Bears 4-10	u39	-2.5-120	u39-110	-148

Sunday 6:00 p.m.

December 31, 2023

Soldier FieldChicago

ATL +800 (Live)

0.5u

ATL +13.5 (Live)+100

0.7u

T.Allgeier Anytime TD Scorer Yes+290

0.29u

Boyd

B.Robinson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+140

0.25u

Under 39-110

0.55u

J.Fields o53.5 Rush Yds-110

2.2u

B.Robinson o24.5 Rec Yds-112

$56.00

B.Robinson o23.5 Rec Yds-110

ATL +130

K.Herbert o28.5 Rush Yds-115

CHI -2.5-120

0.83u

CHI -2.5-120

0.83u

@The_Oddsmaker

V.Jefferson u12.5 Rec Yds-121

@ChrisRaybon

V.Jefferson u12.5 Rec Yds-114

#ConvinceMe

ATL +130

ATL +3-112

CHI -2.5-115

Under 38-110

1.1u

CHI -2.5-110

0.91u

ATL +3-130

1.3u

ATL +3-115

1.15u

Stuckey 2

K.Pitts 50+ Receiving Yards Yes+188

0.5u

K.Pitts o35.5 Rec Yds-114

CHI -3-105

0.95u

ATL +3-110

0.6u

CHI -3-105

$100.00

ATL +3-115

0.7u

Available at FanDuel. Layering this with the Falcons' moneyline to get upside in case they win. Atlanta has played well under Taylor Heinicke, who has averaged 0.15 Passing NEP per drop back, up from -0.01 for Desmond Ridder. It doesn't necessarily mean Heinicke is an upgrade, but he certainly hasn't been a downgrade. They're facing a Bears defense that has been much, much better since adding Montez Sweat, but they've also benefited from plentiful good matchups in that time. The Falcons are that, too, but it's more to say that we shouldn't over-adjust for the Bears' recent showings. My model tends to hate Atlanta, so I'm willing to trust it more when it shows value in them, as it does here.

ATL +136

0.3u

Available at FanDuel. See notes on the Falcons +3 for outlining why the model is high on the Falcons in general. AS far as the moneyline, I've got this game as basically a toss-up, so with the implied odds at 42.4%, you could easily justify taking the moneyline without layering in the spread.

Featured Insight
The Falcons have allowed a passer rating of 39.6 when the opposing QB was scrambling since Week 13 -- T-4th-best in NFL; Bears QBs have a 33.3 passer rating when scrambling since Week 13 -- 5th-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
Bears has allowed their opponent to run 10.0% of plays in the red zone since Week 13 -- T-3rd-best in NFL; the Falcons have run 10.0% offensive plays in the red zone since Week 13 -- 6th-worst in NFL.

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Dec 31, 2023 UTC
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NFL Public Betting

Bears are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Bears are 3-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Bears are 2-5 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Bears' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Bears' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bears	7-6-1	4-1-1	2-5	3-1	4-5-1
Falcons	5-9	2-5	3-4	4-5	1-4

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Bears	5-9	3-3	1-6	2-2	3-7
Falcons	5-9	2-5	3-4	4-5	1-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bears	4-10	N/A	N/A	3-1	1-9
Falcons	7-7	N/A	N/A	6-3	1-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Dec 24th	ARI	W 27-16	-4.5 W	O 42.5	CHI -218
Dec 17th	@CLE	L 17-20	+2.5 L	U 38	CLE +124
Dec 10th	DET	W 28-13	+3 W	U 44.5	CHI +136
Nov 28th	@MIN	W 12-10	+3 W	U 43.5	CHI +138
Nov 19th	@DET	L 26-31	+8 W	O 48	DET +320

Tarvarius Moore
S
Moore is questionable with concussion
Questionable

Ryan Bates
OL
Bates is out with concussion
Out
Darrynton Evans
RB
Evans is out with hamstring
Out
Gervon Dexter
DE
Dexter is out with knee
Out
Roschon Johnson
RB
Johnson is questionable with concussion
Questionable
Kiran Amegadjie
OL
Amegadjie is questionable with calf
Questionable

Mike Hughes
CB
Hughes is questionable with neck
Questionable
James Smith-Williams
DE
Smith-Williams is out with tibia
Out
Ta'Quon Graham
DE
Graham is out with pectoral
Out
Troy Andersen
LB
Andersen is out with knee
Out
Ruke Orhorhoro
DT
Orhorhoro is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Jase McClellan
RB
McClellan is out with knee
Out
Casey Washington
WR
Washington is out with concussion
Out

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Falcons

Total

Bears

307

Total Yards

432

Total Plays

5.2

Yards Per Play

Falcons

Passing

Bears

180

YDS

268

13/33

Comps/Atts

20/32

4.943

YPA

6.857

1/4

TDs/INTs

1/0

2/7

Sacks/Yards

3/28

Falcons

Rushing

Bears

134

Rush Yards

192

Attempts

5.583

YPC

5.189

TDs

Falcons

Turnovers

Bears

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Falcons

Efficiency

Bears

0/1 0%

Redzone

4/5 80%

4/13 0%

3rd Down

6/16 0%

0/1 0%

4th Down

1/2 0%

Falcons

First Downs

Bears

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Falcons

Misc

Bears

1/15

Penalties/Yards

5/55

22:46

Possession

37:14

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MatchupOverUnder
Falcons 7-7	o18.5-115	u18.5-115
Bears 4-10	o20.5-110	u20.5-118

Falcons vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - December 31, 2023

Falcons at Bears

Atlanta Falcons

Chicago Bears

Falcons at Bears Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

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Falcons

Bears

Falcons vs. Bears Previews & Analysis

NFL Best Bets: Our Favorite Sunday Player Props

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Our NFL Best Bets for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET Slate

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Falcons vs. Bears Public Betting Percentages

Falcons

Public

Bears

Bets%

Money%

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Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Bears vs. Falcons Injury Updates

Bears Injuries

Falcons Injuries

Falcons vs. Bears Odds Comparison

Falcons at Bears Team Totals