The Tank4Tua campaign hit a road bump when the Miami Dolphins won their first game of 2019 with a 26-18 victory on the New York Jets this past Sunday.
The Dolphins had a 72.34% chance to land the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft heading into Week 9 according to our Bet Labs model, which simulates the season 10,000 times. The win drops those chances down to 43.18%.
The 0-8 Cincinnati Bengals are closing in on the lead, improving their chances from 14.74% last week to 23.04% as of Monday. Their decision to bench Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finley coming out the bye also doesn't bode well for the Dolphins maintaining a comfortable edge in the race to the bottom.
The 1-8 Washington Redskins also got a bump from 5.28% to 15.84%, as did the Jets from 3.57% to 11.15%.
Still, our model projects the Dolphins to finish with the lowest average wins (2.89), so not all hope is lost of them getting the first pick in a loaded quarterback class.
They have a soft schedule from Weeks 14-16 — at the Jets, at the Giants and vs. the Bengals — but should really only be potentially favored at home against Cincy. Then they wrap the season with a visit to Foxborough.
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Projected 2020 NFL Draft Order
We've projected the order of the first round of the 2020 draft based on the average draft position according to our sims. Note that ties were broken by average win projections.
- Miami Dolphins
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Washington Redskins
- New York Jets
- Atlanta Falcons
- New York Giants
- Denver Broncos
- Arizona Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Cleveland Browns
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Detroit Lions
- Chicago Bears
- Tennessee Titans
- Oakland Raiders
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Carolina Panthers
- Dallas Cowboys
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Indianapolis Colts
- Buffalo Bills
- Los Angeles Rams
- Minnesota Vikings
- Seattle Seahawks
- Houston Texans
- Green Bay Packers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens
- New Orleans Saints
- San Francisco 49ers
- New England Patriots
