Update (5 p.m. ET on Sunday): With the Lions' win over the Packers, the Jaguars have officially secured the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft despite their own win over the Colts. And Detroit has locked in the second overall pick.
Below is our expert's projected draft order base on Sunday's early-afternoon results — we'll update these once again after the late-afternoon games.
2022 NFL Draft Order Projections
| Pick | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Jaguars |
| 2 | Lions |
| 3 | Texans |
| 4 | Jets |
| 5 | Giants |
| 6 | Panthers |
| 7 | Giants (via Bears) |
| 8 | Jets (via Seahawks) |
| 9 | Broncos |
| 10 | Falcons |
| 11 | Washington |
| 12 | Eagles (via Dolphins) |
| 13 | Browns |
| 14 | Vikings |
| 15 | Ravens |
| 16 | Eagles (via Colts) |
| 17 | Saints |
| 18 | Raiders |
| 19 | Dolphins (via 49ers) |
| 20 | Chargers |
| 21 | Steelers |
| 22 | Eagles |
| 23 | Bengals |
| 24 | Cardinals |
| 25 | Patriots |
| 26 | Lions (via Rams) |
| 27 | Cowboys |
| 28 | Bills |
| 29 | Bucs |
| 30 | Chiefs |
| 31 | Titans |
| 32 | Packers |
| Note: The above is not the final order for the 2022 NFL Draft — only projections heading into Week 18. The six first-round picks that have been traded are identified as such. | |
Editor's note: The rest of this story was written on Sunday morning.
While contenders are gearing up for the playoffs, pretenders are turning their attention to the 2022 NFL Draft.
The 2-14 Jaguars would officially lock in the No. 1 overall pick for the second year in a row with a loss to the Colts, who are hoping to clinch a postseason berth when the two teams meet in the regular-season finale on Sunday.
The 2-13-1 Lions are still mathematically "in the hunt" for the top pick, though.
If the Jaguars upset the Colts in Week 18, the Lions could secure positioning at the top of the first round with a win over the Packers, who are already locked into the NFC's 1-seed and have little else to play for in Week 18.
The Jaguars are 14-point underdogs against the Colts, while the Lions are only 4-point underdogs against the Packers (check real-time NFL odds here), so it makes sense why our expert's model gives Jacksonville a 90.8% chance of finishing with the first overall pick and Detroit only a 9.2% chance.
We also used the model — which is one of six that powers our NFL PRO Projections — to project various teams' chances of finishing with a top-five or -10 pick. (Note: these projections do not factor in the results of Saturday's games.)
2022 NFL Draft Projections
| Team | Top 5 Pick% | Top 10 Pick% |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Lions | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Texans | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Jets | 95.50% | 100.00% |
| Giants | 65.20% | 100.00% |
| Panthers | 39.30% | 100.00% |
| Bears | 0.00% | 80.70% |
| Falcons | 0.00% | 72.10% |
| Broncos | 0.00% | 51.20% |
| Browns | 0.00% | 30.80% |
| Vikings | 0.00% | 13.10% |
| Dolphins | 0.00% | 0.50% |
