The Baltimore Ravens (13-5) and Buffalo Bills (14-4) will face off tonight in the NFL Divisional Round at 6:30 p.m. EST from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will be live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
Let's get into my Ravens vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks.
The Ravens are favored by 1.5 points over the Bills with the game total set at 51.5 points scored. The Ravens are -120 favorites to win outright, while the Bills are +100 to pull off the upset. Buffalo opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but action came in right away on Baltimore and moved the line significantly.
Lamar Jackson threw 2 touchdowns and Derrick Henry ran for 186 yards and 2 scores in a win over the Steelers last weekend. Now, Baltimore looks to beat the Bills for the second time this season after blowing them out back in September. Josh Allen was held without a touchdown in that game in a 25-point blowout loss.
Ravens vs. Bills Prediction
Spread
I'm not betting either team's spread. I project this game close to a pick'em, but 1.5 points isn't enough for me to bet on Buffalo.
I think this is a bad matchup for the Bills, though, so I'm still looking to fade them.
Moneyline
Early on in this game, I believe the Ravens should have more consistent success on the ground, which should lead to fewer tough third-down situations and in turn a higher frequency of sustained drives. The Ravens top-ranked rush defense should force Buffalo into more known passing situations, which could kill a few drives.
Lamar Jackson is the most profitable quarterback against the first-half spread in NFL history. Last week, he led a 21-0 onslaught of the Steelers in the first half. He covers more than 65% of the time in the first half.
I'll bet on the Ravens to be up at halftime here.
Over/Under
I project this total at 51, so I'm too close to the market to have a bet on this.
My Pick: Ravens 1H ML (-110)
Ravens vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Total
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 51.5 -108o / -112u | -118 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 51.5 -108o / -112u | -102 |
- Ravens vs. Bills spread: Ravens -1.5 (-110)
- Ravens vs. Bills over/under: 51.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Ravens vs. Bills moneyline: Ravens -118, Bills -102
- Ravens vs. Bills best bet: Ravens 1H ML (-110)
MyRavens vs. Bills best bet is on Baltimore to win the first half. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Preview
For the full-game spread, I make this game a coin flip. It’s a great matchup between the two best quarterbacks this season in one of the NFL’s best environments.
This just isn't an ideal matchup for the Bills, who were blown out this season by the Ravens early in the regular season.
The Bills run defense is vulnerable. It stuffs runs at an above-average rate but also allows a ton of explosive runs, especially outside the tackles. That’s an awful problem to have against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
The Buffalo defense has trended down a bit over the second half of the season, while the opposite holds true for Baltimore. Since Week 9, the Ravens rank No. 2 in EPA/play, while the Bills rank 21st. The Bills also faced an easier schedule of opposing offenses this season, including two matchups each against the Patriots, Jets and Dolphins.
Against playoff teams, the Bills went 2-3 and allowed 33 points per game, including at least 35 on three separate occasions. Meanwhile, the Ravens played a whopping 10 games in the regular season against playoff teams. They went 7-3 and allowed only 18.5 points per game with only one of those 10 opponents able to eclipse the 27-point mark.
The Bills also have the second-worst defense against passes over the middle of the field. That’s problematic with or without Zay Flowers, who didn’t do much when Baltimore blew out Buffalo during the regular season. Look for Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews to play major roles in the passing attack. I personally fancy many of the Likely props.
The biggest mismatch is Buffalo trying to stop the Ravens' run game. I don’t see how the Bills can do that without fundamentally changing the way they play defense (two high safeties, light personnel groupings). While doing that in one week would be very risky, especially in the playoffs, I don't think they can afford to maintain the status quo. Buffalo will have to play heavier in the box after only using its base defense at the lowest rate in the league during the regular season.
The Ravens ran the ball 34 times for 271 yards in the first matchup, so the Bills will have to do something differently to slow down Henry and Jackson even with a number of starters back who didn't play in that first meeting.
I imagine the Ravens will utilize a high frequency of two back and two-tight end sets (89% of snaps last week) and even numerous six offensive linemen packages (15 times last week) to take advantage of an undersized Buffalo defensive line that can be pushed around a bit.
Josh Allen could still have a big game against a Ravens defense that has drastically improved over the second half of the season. However, they also did benefit from facing a fairly easy schedule down the stretch. Even the Steelers had some big plays down the field against Baltimore, so imagine what Allen can do.
I wouldn't be surprised if Allen leads the Bills to victory in the second half once they fully unleash him. It may not be as easy for the Ravens to mount any sort of significant comeback if they get too far behind since that would likely mitigate their advantage in the rushing department. They'd also really miss Flowers in that scenario.
Additionally, I trust Sean McDermott a tad more than the unseasoned Zach Orr in terms of making defensive adjustments at halftime. I'm sure McDermott has alternative plans in his back pocket.
While Jackson is the most profitable first-half quarterback in NFL history, Allen is actually the most profitable against the second-half spread at 74-44-3 (63%), including 15-2 against the second-half spread this season. If the Ravens hold a halftime lead, I may look to back Allen in the second half. It certainly wouldn't be the first time the Ravens have blown a lead in recent seasons under John Harbaugh.
My Pick: Ravens 1H ML (-110)
Bills vs. Ravens Betting Trends
Bills vs. Weather
