The No. 1 overall pick from the latest NFL Draft, Caleb Williams, and the Chicago Bears will travel to take on the Buffalo Bills in their preseason opener this Saturday at Highmark Stadium, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. on NFL Network.
When the preseason schedule was released, it made sense that this one would be on national television. There's a lot of hype around the Bears this season with Williams under center, and there will be a lot of anticipation to see him in action, even if he doesn't play much.
Let's break down the matchup and find a pick in my Bears vs Bills prediction for the best bet in Saturday's Week 1 NFL preseason game.
Bears vs Bills Prediction: Bet the Over
Bears vs Bills Odds: Bills Slight Home Favorites
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | -150 |
As we get closer to Saturday's 1 p.m. ET kickoff, the Bills are 3-point favorites (-3) against the Bears, with the over/under set at 37.5 total points scored. Chicago is a +145 underdog to come away with the victory, while the Bills are -170 to win at home.
Bears vs Bills Pick
My original Bears vs Bills prediction was on over 38.5, and with the total now down to 37.5 at FanDuel, there's even more value on this Bears vs Bills pick.
Chris Baker's Bears vs Bills Preview for Both Teams
Bears Preview: Expect Bears Starters To Feature Early
It looks like Caleb Williams will play for at least a series or two here. Head Coach Matt Eberflus said starters would play in a “range of plays,” so take that how you will. When the Bears starting offense is on the field, it will look wildly different than last season as they added Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett to their skill position groups.
Between Odunze, Allen, and D.J. Moore Caleb Williams should have plenty of opportunities to throw to open receivers this season.
The Bills are expected to play their starters in the first quarter, so Caleb will have to produce against a top-10 defense in his first appearance in the NFL. The Bears should be in decent hands once Caleb leaves the field, as we will likely see a combination of Tyson Bagent and Brett Rypien.
Bagent showed flashes of talent in his NFL starts last year and managed to pull off a 2-2 record in his four starts. Brett Rypien has been a journeyman for most of his career, but he looked competent in the Hall of Fame Game against the Texans last week as he threw for 177 yards and three passing touchdowns.
We’ll see if that was more a reflection of the Texans weak pass defense or of Rypien’s genuine competency in this matchup against a better Bills secondary.
Bills Preview: Bills Hope to Develop Chemistry
Josh Allen should play for the entire first quarter and I’d expect the Bills offense to have success against the Bears defense. The Bears didn’t really make many upgrades on defense outside of S Kevin Byard this offseason. The Bears finished 19th in defensive pass EPA last year and their secondary is very young and inexperienced still with Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, and Jaquan Brisker starting.
The Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in free agency and replaced them with rookie WR Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel from the Commanders. The WR trio of Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Keon Coleman is speedy and athletic and I think the Bills will still be an elite offensive unit as Gabe Davis and Diggs weren’t really performing well towards the end of last season anyway.
Stefon Diggs struggled with drops and struggled to get open at the same rates as he finished the season ranking 76th percentile in success rate against man coverage and in the 67th percentile of success rate against zone coverage, according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception which charts every wide-receiver route and their ability to get open. Diggs had previously been above the 95th percentile in both categories every season of his career, so he is still good but likely not an elite WR like he was when the Bills traded for him.
Gabe Davis finished the season with a poor 53.8% success rate against man coverage (7th percentile) and a 76.3% success rate against zone coverage (30th percentile). Enter Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel, which gives me reason to believe the Bills could even improve offensively in 2024.
The Bills offense may have to develop some chemistry before they are dominant, but when Josh Allen is under-center you can expect this to be a top-10 offense in the NFL regardless of who is lining up at WR. When Josh Allen leaves the field, this will turn into a Mitch Trubisky revenge game, and then we should see QB3 Shane Buechele for some reps as well.
Buechele has never taken a regular season snap in the NFL, but he does have lots of preseason experience over the past three seasons with the Chiefs throwing for nine total passing touchdowns and seven interceptions over that span.
Use Quickslip for Your Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills Bets
Chris Baker's Bears vs Bills Prediction: The Over is Your Best Bet
I like the over at 38.5 here, as we should see roughly a quarter of starting offense and then we will be getting competent QB play for most the game between Bagent, Trubisky and Rypien.
Looking down the depth charts on each of these teams, and there is definitely skill-position talent, as the Bears feature guys like Velus Jones, Tyler Scott, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson as their backups.
The Bills have an intriguing depth chart as well offensively with speedsters K.J. Hamler, Chase Claypool, Andy Isabella and Marquez-Valdez Scantling. Ultimately, I think these offenses will both have edges here, and I think we'll see Saturday's matchup clear this high preseason total of 38.5.
