The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 5 on October 3. The game is set to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
Read below for PropBetGuy's Bijan Robinson player prop for Buccaneers vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
For our best bets and expert picks for tonight's game, head over to our full guide for Buccaneers-Falcons.
PropBetGuy's Buccaneers vs Falcons Player Prop
- Bijan Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (-120, bet365)
With the Buccaneers and Falcons kicking us off for Week 5, my favorite player prop of the game revolves around Atlanta’s second-year running back to clear his receptions line.
Bijan Robinson has established himself as a dual threat out of the Falcons back-field. Not only has Robinson cleared this line in three of his four games, but is tied for second on the Falcons with 15 receptions this season.
Of his 16 targets this season, seven have come from designed screen passes, per Fantasy Points Data. As one of the Falcons’ primary playmakers, I expect Robinson to see a few manufactured targets tonight.
And overall, it’s a fantastic matchup for Robinson to garner production through the air. The Bucs rank 25th in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric against running backs in the passing game – the only position they rank outside of the top 14.
Overall, Tampa has allowed 26 catches to opposing running backs through four games at a 21% target rate – the second and sixth highest marks in the NFL, respectively.
With the Falcons' receivers drawing an underrated yet tough matchup against the Bucs secondary, and Kyle Pitts struggling to garner targets, it’s Robinson who has the best matchup in the passing game tonight. Last season, in his only full game against the Bucs, the Texas product secured five catches on seven targets.
I project Robinson for another six targets tonight, a mark he should have no issue converting into four receptions.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (-120)
