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Rachaad White
Longest Rush Under 13.5 Yards (-122)
White has not cleared this total on 83 rushing attempts this season. Last season, he only had four carries clear this on 129 attempts.
If you just went based off of White's career rate and applied it to his rush attempt prop of 12.5, there would be about an 80% chance he stays under. I don’t think we can expect him to continue at such a low rate, but I also think it’s unlikely he will get much better moving forward.
White has struggled as a runner this season, and the Buccaneers' O-line has done him zero favors. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in ESPN’s run-blocking win rate.
Plus, the Bucs are 9.5-point underdogs tonight, which means it’ll likely be a more pass-heavy, trailing game script where they use dump-offs to White as an extension of the passing game. Tampa Bay has also been trying to get a backup to eat into White’s early-down role. Sean Tucker and Ke’Shawn Vaughn have also struggled, but they get Chase Edmonds back from injured reserve tonight, and I can see him getting a handful of carries, which could make White’s floor even lower.
I’m projecting this closer to 10.5 yards and a 67% chance he stays under 13.5.
