Bills vs Chiefs Best Bets: NFL Divisional Round Picks
A trip to the AFC Championship Game is on the line, and we have Bills vs Chiefs best bets: NFL Divisional Round picks for Sunday night at Highmark Stadium. We have you covered in a variety of markets, including a pick on the spread, plus three Josh Allen player props.
Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bets |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Chiefs vs. Bills
The market has hovered between 2.5 and 3 for the majority of the week in the build-up to the game. The conditions look cold and somewhat windy, but considerably more manageable for Kansas City than last week's extreme cold.
Both quarterbacks will need to use their legs to extend drives. Even though Buffalo should have success on the ground, the injury to Diggs and the absence of Davis leaves Buffalo's offense without a clear route to passing success and explosiveness. The Steelers couldn't cover running backs and tight ends all season, but Kansas City has a much better defense overall than Pittsburgh.
I fully expect this game to come down to the final possession and maybe even the first overtime game since the "13 Seconds Game" two years ago. Buffalo and Kansas City are about even, and when you consider extra rest, health and Buffalo home field, this should be lined inside a point. Wait around and see if the line gets back to +3, but I'd bet Kansas City at +2 or better.
Chiefs vs. Bills
I really wanted to get there on betting the Bills, but it's right at the key number and the injuries and rest disadvantage are really scary.
If the Bills do win, you better believe Allen will be the reason. He always shows up for these Mahomes battles, and he unleashes his running in the biggest moments too — see also that spectacular TD run against the Steelers.
Allen has become Buffalo's goal-line back. The Bills have their own Tush Push sneak now, and Allen has repeatedly plowed over defenders to find the end zone. He's run for a score in 13 of Buffalo's 18 games (72%), and nine of those scores came over the final seven games, including one against the Chiefs last time and one against the Steelers on Monday.
The Bills save Allen's legs for the biggest moments, and it doesn't get any bigger than this. Allen scored twice on the ground in three of the last six games, so there's value on 2+ TDs at +600 too.
Chiefs vs. Bills
This season Allen hasn't been rushing the ball at the same rate as he usually does, but that changed a bit in the second half of the season and with this being the playoffs, I expect Allen to do a lot more on the ground.
Allen has hit the over at this number in each of the last three games, and looking back into Allen's history in the playoffs, he's hit the over at this number in six out of his nine playoff appearances.
The weather in this game isn't going to be great for passing with some wind and temps around zero here, so Allen has even more incentive to rush the ball. I would bet the over all the way up to 48.5 in this spot.
Chiefs vs. Bills
Gabe Davis (knee) has been ruled out for this contest and Stefon Diggs is dealing with a foot issue — though he carries no injury designation. Diggs was shown barely blocking in the Monday win on a couple of different plays, and he didn't practice on Thursday before he was "limited at best" in Friday's practice.
Diggs and Davis are the top two wideouts in this offense and the Bills will be extremely limited from explosiveness without them. It puts more pressure on the run game, which has dramatically increased its usage since Joe Brady became offensive coordinator midseason.
Prior to Dorsey's firing, the Bills were sixth in early down pass rate. Since Week 11, the Bills rank 17th in early down pass frequency in non-blowout games. Against the Chiefs, this would seem to be a solid approach given that Kansas City finished the regular season 27th in rushing defense DVOA.
With Allen relying on his legs and the running game through Cook, his yards total is also inflated. I'm betting under pass yards at 225 or more.
Chiefs vs. Bills
I took a long shot last week with TE Noah Gray at +800. While he didn’t come through, I still am in the camp of taking a Chiefs player with longer odds, like Justin Watson at +550 or Marques Valdes-Scantling at +850.
We know Patrick Mahomes will find a way to buy time in the pocket with his legs, which means downfield threats like Watson and MVS can hopefully get open.
The Bills ranked 23rd in DVOA against deep passes and 25th in DVOA against opposing WR2s, so I’d likely opt for Watson. He’s playing the second-most snaps of any Chiefs receiver and he has had flashes of success against both man and zone defense. Meanwhile, Valdes-Scantling hasn’t been effective against any defense this year.
Watson was one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs offense in the second half of the season, catching all three of his touchdowns after the team's Week 10 bye.
