Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Picks, Player Props | NFL Best Bets
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Bills vs Chiefs Pick
From Anthony Dabbundo
The market has hovered between 2.5 and 3 for the majority of the week in the lead up to the game. The conditions look cold and somewhat windy, but considerably more manageable for Kansas City than last week's extreme cold.
Both quarterbacks will need to use their legs to extend drives. Even though Buffalo should have success on the ground, the injury to Diggs and the absence of Davis leaves Buffalo's offense without a clear route to passing success and explosiveness. The Steelers couldn't cover running backs and tight ends all season, but Kansas City has a much better defense overall than Pittsburgh.
I fully expect this game to come down to the final possession and maybe even the first overtime game since the 13 seconds game in 2021. Buffalo and Kansas City are about even, and when you consider extra rest, health and Buffalo home field, this should be lined inside a point. Wait around and see if the line gets back to +3, but I'd bet Kansas City at +2 or better.
With Allen relying on his legs and the running game through Cook, his yards total is also inflated. I'm betting under pass yards at 225 or more.
Bills vs Chiefs Player Props
TE Dalton Kincaid
Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
From Sam Farley
Big things were expected from Dalton Kincaid when he was selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and he’s more or less delivered. Kincaid has totaled over 700 yards and has three touchdowns on the season, with his latest coming against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round.
His receiving yards line stands at 38.5 yards for Sunday night, and I can’t see him not smashing that. It’s a line he’s covered in his last three games, racking up 230 yards in total.
Tight ends average 47 yards per game against the Chiefs, and with Kincaid involved in nearly double the amount of passing snaps as fellow tight end Dawson Knox was last week and having three times as many targets, I see the rookie covering once again.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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James Cook
Anytime TD (+150)
From Gilles Gallant
The second-year RB has been a frustrating player to bet in this market because Josh Allen has consistently vultured him at the goal line. The good news for Cook is this is a decent matchup for him as the Bills' main pass-catching back, a profile of player the Chiefs have struggled with this season. K.C. ranks 21st in DVOA against RB as receivers and has allowed four TDs.
Cook has 18 red-zone touches over the last five games and dropped an easy touchdown on Monday against the Steelers. Also, for what it’s worth, he scored when the Bills faced the Chiefs during the regular season and finished with five catches and 83 yards in that game.
Cook's odds aren't sexy at +150 but when the Bills get to the goal line, they’re not going to be so predictable and have Allen carry the ball right away until they need to have it. Cook will at least get the first few goal-line opportunities, whether that's a carry or a quick pass to the end zone.
I had expected odds for Cook at +120 given his recent volume carrying the football and the Chiefs ranking 27th in DVOA against the run. At +150, you could also potentially wait until closer to kickoff to see if the odds go up more.
