The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in the AFC Championship Game next Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
This is a rematch of last year's AFC Divisional Round Game, which the Chiefs won by the score of 27-24. Once again, Josh Allen and the Bills have the unenviable task of trying to dispatch Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the NFL playoffs. Buffalo has been ousted by Kansas City three times in the postseason since 2020 — perhaps the fourth time is the charm?
As for the Chiefs, they handled the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. Kansas City is a win away from its fifth trip to the Super Bowl in six seasons.
Here are the opening Bills vs. Chiefs odds for the AFC Championship Game next Sunday.
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -1.5
- Bills vs. Chiefs total: Over/Under 48.5 points
- Bills vs. Chiefs moneylines: Bills +105, Chiefs -125
These odds are as of Sunday at 9:34 p.m. ET on DraftKings.
Bills vs. Chiefs Projection
Sean Koerner, Action Network's director of predictive analytics, is delivering us his early projections for every playoff game as each matchup is set.
Koerner projects this spread at Chiefs -0.5 with the over/under set at 47 points scored.
Buffalo Bills
By Brandon Anderson
Is this finally the year for the Bills? Buffalo rolls into the playoffs with huge statement wins over the Chiefs and Lions down the home stretch, and Josh Allen is the presumptive MVP favorite as Buffalo attempts to circle the wagons and finally win the big one.
If the Bills win it, Allen and the offense will be the reason. Buffalo’s offense has been as good as any in the NFL this season, both running and passing, and Allen is a huge part of that with both his legs and his arm. James Cook has also been a big weapon out of the backfield, and the midseason addition of Amari Cooper bolstered a deep and versatile receiving corps.
The big question is whether Sean McDermott’s defense is up to the task. The Bills gave up 44 to the Rams and 42 to the Lions in December, plus 35 to the Ravens back in September. The defense has tailed off late in the season and can be beaten by top offenses, and Buffalo will face plenty of those if it’s going to make a playoff run.
Kansas City Chiefs
By Brandon Anderson
You already know all about the Chiefs’ season, and why wouldn’t you? Kansas City survived by a toenail in the opener, won by a point in Week 2, and has been pulling off close victories all season. The Chiefs finished 11-0 in one-score games and are the 1-seed once again as they look to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls.
Patrick Mahomes leads the way, as always. This wasn’t the best statistical season for Mahomes but he still makes all the plays on third down and late when needed, and the offense rounded into form late in the season as DeAndre Hopkins settled into the offense next to Travis Kelce, rookie Xavier Worthy, and the healthy return of Isaiah Pacheco. The offensive line has been a weak spot, especially at tackle, and this offense is more good than great but might be saving itself for the playoffs.
The defense was outstanding early but saw a big midseason dip, especially against the pass. Steve Spagnuolo always seems to get this unit to peak at the right time, though, and this defense is playing its best ball with Jaylen Warren back healthy next to Trent McDuffie at corner now.
This isn’t the best Chiefs team we’ve seen, but Kansas City is 15-2 either way, and the Chiefs are two home wins away from a shot at NFL history.
