Bills vs Dolphins Best Bets: 5 Picks & Props for Sunday Night Football
NFL Week 18 concludes at Hard Rock Stadium, and we have Bills vs Dolphins best bets, picks & props for Sunday Night Football.
Bills vs Dolphins odds have Buffalo listed as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 48 or 48.5, depending on the sportsbook. Our NFL analysts are aligned on a side, with three picks on Buffalo covering the spread. We also have a pick on the game total and a Stefon Diggs player prop.
Click on the team logos or a pick to navigate our Bills vs Dolphins best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs Dolphins Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 48 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 48 -110o / -110u | +125 |
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Bills vs. Dolphins
Miami has only beaten one playoff team this season. When asked to step up in competition, it is clear the Dolphins are not quite at the level of the other elite teams in the league.
In addition to a matchup with a Bills team that dismantled them earlier in the season, the Dolphins have had to deal with numerous injuries to key players up front on both sides of the ball. According to Sharp Football, with Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb on the field, the Dolphins have the sixth-best pressure rate. Whenever two of their best edge rushers haven't been on the field, though, they're 28th.
While Josh Allen has not played his best football down the stretch, he has historically played very well against the Dolphins regardless of where the game was played. Over their past four meetings, Allen has averaged 344 passing yards per game, including 14 total touchdowns without a single interception. Allen's best game of this season in terms of yards per attempt came against this defense earlier this season when he averaged more than 12 yards per pass.
The Dolphins simply have too many injured players to overcome in this spot, another of which is starting cornerback Xavien Howard. This line has briefly dropped to 2.5 at the time of writing this, and that is worth a substantial play even with the little extra juice it may cost.
Otherwise, playing the Bills -3 is perfectly fine, as well.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (-120)
Bills vs. Dolphins
By Cody Goggin
The NFL got their dream scenario as this Sunday Night Football matchup will matter for both teams, regardless of the outcome in earlier games. This also makes it a bit more palatable to bet props as we know who will be playing in this matchup.
When kept clean this season Josh Allen ranks second in Pro Football Focus' passing grade with an outstanding 92.6 grade while he ranks just 10th with a 58.4 grade when under pressure. With all of the injuries to Miami's defense in the pass rush and secondary, this unit is vulnerable.
On the other side, the Dolphins offensive line is finally starting to get relatively healthy. However, the big injuries on this side of the ball are to Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle. Mike McDaniel's offense has been able to overcome a lot this year with absences to key players but if these two playmakers miss the game, it will likely all come down to Tyreek Hill and Devon Achane.
After struggling for a bit in the middle of the year, Buffalo’s defense has picked it up in the second half of the season. Since week 10 Buffalo ranks third in the entire league in EPA per dropback allowed. Also, when these two teams faced off in Week 4, Miami was held to -0.03 EPA per play, which was one of their lowest marks of the entire season.
I think that Miami’s injuries may just be too much for them in this matchup. Buffalo was able to get an early lead and defeat the Dolphins earlier this season and I think that the Bills are playing at an extremely high level right now.
At a field goal or less, I’m taking Buffalo to take home the AFC East division crown.
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Bills vs. Dolphins
The game of the week also presents the strongest betting opportunity on the board. The Bills go to Miami to face a Dolphins team they have recently matched up very well against. Josh Allen and head coach Sean McDermott are 3-1 against Miami since Mike McDaniel was hired.
We cannot ignore the injuries piling up on the Miami side. The Dolphins have lost multiple key linebackers and face a bulldozing QB with rushing upside in Allen who can easily exploit weaknesses over the middle of the field. The Dolphins will be missing Phillips, Chubb and possibly Howard on defense. These are huge losses and talent gaps to fill.
Finally, there is clear sharp money on the Bills side. The line for Week 18 universally opened at Bills -2.5 (-110), and we're now left paying for the last -115 on the board with a bunch of other 3s popping up.
If you can find a Bills -2.5, play it up to -120. The one-half point onto the -3 in the NFL is the most important hook and one of the rare sports lines where paying the extra 10 cents of vig is worth it. I would also be comfortable with a -110 on the -3, but nothing beyond that.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (-120)
Bills vs. Dolphins
By Chris Raybon
Since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey at offensive coordinator, the Bills have been an entirely different offense. With Ken Dorsey, they were averaging 36.3 passes and 25.0 rushes per game, but with Brady, they’re averaging 33.2 passes and a whopping 37.0 rushes, slowing the pace down and emphasizing ball control.
Both of these teams are strong defensively – Buffalo is 10th in weighted DVOA and Miami is 12th, per FTN – and the offenses could be slowed by the humid (and somewhat windy) Miami weather. Per our Action Labs data, games with humidity of 77% or more and winds of 8 mph or more are 232-129-3 (62%), falling short of the closing total by 2.7 points on average.
Also per Action Labs, primetime unders are 67-41 (62%) since the start of last season, covering by 1.6 points per game.
Bet to: 48
Bills vs. Dolphins
By Ricky Henne
Stefon Diggs has somehow become a forgotten man in the Bills offense, averaging a mere 37.4 receiving yards over his last seven games. He’s exceeded 50 yards in only one of those contests – a 74-yard outburst against the Eagles.
So, why am I backing Diggs this week?
Well, the wideout’s owned Miami since joining the Bills in 2020, averaging 6.3 catches for 87.1 yards in eight games with six touchdowns. He’s been especially exceptional over his past couple games against them. Diggs had six catches for 120 yards and a whopping three touchdowns in these teams' first meeting this season and hauled in seven passes for 114 yards in Buffalo’s 34-31 playoff win over the Dolphins last January.
A lot was said about Xavien Howard not shadowing Diggs in their first meeting this year, but he won’t get the chance to do so this week after injuring himself in last week’s loss to the Ravens. Instead, Diggs might get shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. That’s a tough task, but Diggs has had success against Ramsey in the past. He torched him last season when Ramsey was with the Rams, catching eight passes for 122 yards and a 53-yard touchdown.
Diggs’ receiving yards total sits at 59.5 heading into kickoff. I’m taking advantage of a depressed line due to his recent struggles, and counting on him continuing his dominance over the Dolphins in a huge game. I’m also sprinkling a bit on an anytime touchdown at +150 but going over on receiving yards is my favorite Diggs prop. I’ll take this up to the 61.5 yards several books offer at it.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
