Bills vs. Dolphins Most Valuable Prop Bets: Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen

Bills vs. Dolphins Most Valuable Prop Bets: Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen article feature image
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Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds: Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen


Bills Logo
Sunday, Jan. 7
8:15 p.m. ET
NBC
Dolphins Logo
Bills Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-3
-110
49.5
-110o / -110u
-165
Dolphins Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+3
-110
49.5
-110o / -110u
+135
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Action Network's proprietary betting algorithms have targeted three top selections for Bills vs. Dolphins in a win-or-go-home matchup for the AFC East.

The betting models are targeting both quarterbacks: Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen.

Allen in particular will be particularly incentivized with a milestone for this game. Allen needs 53 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to join Drew Brees as the only players in NFL history to reach 4,000 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns in four consecutive seasons. 

Read the link below to see what other players will be incentivized to rack up the stats this weekend.

Our algorithms for Bills vs. Dolphins are developed by our predictive analytics team, which make empirical predictions on every game with value and have created popular benchmark statistics like the Luck Rankings.

We also have the public's favorite picks for this matchup.

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Bills vs. Dolphins Most Valuable Prop Bets

  1. Tua Tagovailoa to record under 5.5 rushing yards (-115)
  2. Josh Allen to record under 35.5 rushing yards (-110)
  3. Tua Tagovailoa to record under 268.5 passing yards (-114)
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Bills vs. Dolphins

Where's The Value?

Tagovailoa is projected to put up closer to 3 rushing yards, according to our algorithms. The models simulate thousands of iterations of this particular matchups — with roster adjustments in mind — and project an average figure for each player's props.

Allen is also expected to underperform his rushing yard stat, even though he's expected to tuck it and run several times on the night, as he tends to do in bigger games. Still, our algorithms indicate he'll put up about 31 yards on the ground, on average.

The last line expects Tagovailoa to underperform his passing yard total by about 14 yards. The models expect the Dolphins QB to post 255 passing yards over a long sample size. This market-best price is on FanDuel.

The first two props are located at BetMGM.

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