Bills vs Dolphins Player Props: SNF Bets for Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Gabe Davis
In the table below, you'll find each of Sam Farley's Bills vs Dolphins player props for Sunday Night Football. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific SNF bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Bills vs. Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa
Under 269.5 Passing Yards (-115)
People seem to be expecting a shootout, but I really don’t see it and I’m backing the under on the total. One of the reasons behind my thinking is that neither quarterback has been fantastic in recent weeks.
Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Tagovailoa had five games with at least 300 passing yards. In the six games since, he has zero 300-yard passing games. His passing yards line sits at 269.5 as of this writing, a number that he’s topped twice in his last six games — one of which was against a terrible Commanders secondary.
There are two reasons I’m taking the under here.
Tagovailoa hasn’t been at his best and looks to be carrying a lingering injury. The Bills defense also has been very good in recent weeks. They will be a problem and I think we’re going to see the Dolphins rely on the ground game.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 269.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Josh Allen
Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Allen threw for just 169 yards against the Patriots last week. The Bills have had some impressive wins in recent weeks, but we need to talk about Allen’s performances as a passer.
He has just two games with a QBR over 90 in his last eight games and his rushing ability masks the fact he has been poor through the air.
Whether that is an issue with Allen or something schematic is up for debate, but I don’t see him going over 245.5 passing yards here, a number he hasn't reached since Week 12.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Josh Allen
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)
Through 16 games, we’ve seen Allen throw 16 interceptions. He’s averaging one per game and has thrown at least one in 11 of his last 12 games. That is frankly a terrible return and his carelessness with the football is a big issue.
The Dolphins might be without Xavien Howard, but I still think they can cause Allen problems because he hasn’t been good enough protecting the football.
At -115, I think you’re getting great value on him throwing an interception.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)
Josh Allen
Anytime TD (-120)
OK, enough with the Josh Allen bashing, let’s talk about the one thing he’s doing exceptionally well at the moment: scoring touchdowns.
He’s rushed for 15 touchdowns this season and he's found the end zone eight times in his last five games, which is simply absurd.
The Dolphins have allowed five rushing touchdowns to QBs this season and will more than likely give one up to Josh Allen on Sunday Night Football, in my opinion.
Pick: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-120)
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Gabe Davis
Anytime TD (+290)
Finally, we’re going for a value play on Gabe Davis to score a touchdown. He’s +290 to find the end zone, which feels like a reasonable price despite Allen averaging less than two passing touchdowns per game this season.
Davis has scored seven touchdowns and he’ll profit from Xavien Howard missing this game, with Stefon Diggs likely to be covered by Jalen Ramsey.
That should allow Davis to find easier matchups and give Allen opportunities to maximize his 6-foot-2 frame to score. At +290, I’m happy to have a speculative bet on it.
