We close NFL Week 6 with a matchup between AFC East rivals on Monday Night Football. Chris Raybon is on the Jets tonight, but my pick isn't going to be on either side.
I have a player prop for Monday Night Football, an under on a Breece Hall market that will probably be getting 95% or more action on the over.
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Jets vs. Bills Player Prop
Hall is off to a rough start this season, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. It’s not entirely his fault as he’s only averaging 0.02 yards before contact on the season, so it’s been a combination of his offensive line not helping him out and not finding room to run.
I do think Hall will only get better rest of season, probably as soon as tonight against a Bills run defense that has been a bit shaky. Buffalo has allowed the most rush yards per attempt in the NFL at 5.2 yards.
However, I took a closer look and saw a lot of that has come from rushing quarterbacks (Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson) and Derrick Henry. If you remove Henry's rush attempts, the Bills are allowing 3.8 yards per rush to RBs, which isn't bad.
The Bills also recently got LB Terrell Bernard back from injury, and they've allowed close to two fewer yards per carry with him on the field this season (6.4 off vs. 4.7 on).
We’ve also seen rookie Braelon Allen be the more efficient Jets running back this season based on rush attempts. I think the shake up in the coaching staff could result in Allen seeing a bit more work on early downs while Hall continues to dominate passing-down work.
We’ve also seen Allen mix in at a much higher rate when the Jets are leading, which sort of lowers Hall’s potential rush attempts ceiling.
I’m projecting his median closer to 51.5 yards (while awarding him a ton of positive regression in terms of efficiency and volume) with around a 60% chance to stay under 59.5.
| Rush Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 54.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 55.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 56.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 57.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 58.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 59.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 60.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 61.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 62.5 | 36% | 64% |
