Bills vs Broncos Player Props: Bets for Russell Wilson, Dalton Kincaid, Josh Allen
In the table below, you'll find each of Michael Crosson's top Bills vs Broncos player props for Monday Night Football, including picks for Russell Wilson, Dalton Kincaid and Josh Allen.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Broncos vs. Bills
Russell Wilson
Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Broncos were the laughing stock of the league in Russell Wilson’s first campaign with the team last season. They finished last in the AFC West with a record of 5-12 behind an offense that ranked 32nd in points scored and a defense that ranked 14th in points allowed.
In the first few weeks of this season, their laughable status seemingly carried over, but in a totally different way. The Broncos stumbled out to an ugly 1-3 start under new head coach Sean Payton, ranking 10th in points scored and 32nd in points allowed during that span.
Since Week 4, though, everything has slowly balanced out for Denver. The Broncos are 2-2 in their last four games, averaging 18 points scored and 19 points allowed. As a result of Denver’s latest offensive struggles, Wilson has been forced to pull it down and run far more often than he’s been accustomed to over the last few years.
Wilson rushed for 13 yards or fewer in three of four contests to open the season, which didn’t exactly register as a huge surprise after averaging just 13.1 rushing yards per game in 2021 and 18.5 in 2022.
But over the last few weeks Wilson has put it all on the line, averaging 32.8 rushing yards on five carries per game across his last four games while clearing the 20-yard mark in all of those contests.
I’ll back Wilson to stay active in Denver's rushing attack on Monday night.
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Broncos vs. Bills
Josh Allen
Over 0.5 Interception (-135)
For the last three years or so, NFL futures odds have consistently indicated that the Bills are top-shelf contenders in the AFC. But year after year, they continue to disappoint in the grand scheme of things.
However, even with their regular shortcomings, this Buffalo team rarely struggles in the regular season like it has over the last handful of weeks.
The Bills own a record of 2-3 in their last five games, which is a stunning turn of events after finishing their previous campaign with a record of 13-3 — not to mention they started this season 3-1. But the fact of the matter is that it’s incredibly difficult to win when you lose the turnover battle, and Buffalo is a glaring example of that.
The Bills have yielded a turnover differential of -6 over the last four weeks, and Josh Allen has been the main reason for their miserable performance in that department — he’s thrown an interception in five straight games while also losing a fumble during that span.
At this point, turnovers are pretty much a constant part of the equation when it comes to evaluating the current iteration of the Bills.
Allen has been picked off in seven of Buffalo’s last nine games so it's tough to pass up this prop at -140.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interception (-135)
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Broncos vs. Bills
Dalton Kincaid
Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid was pretty quiet in the first couple of games of his professional career. Most of his early action came in a secondary role in two-TE sets alongside Dawson Knox; Kincaid fell short of five catches and 30 receiving yards in four of five outings to start the season.
However, Knox has been sidelined with a wrist injury for the last 2 1/2 games, and he’s slated to miss Monday night’s contest as well.
As a result, Kincaid’s production has nearly doubled. He’s averaging 73.4 receiving yards on 7.7 catches across his last three outings while comfortably clearing the 60-yard mark in all of those contests (75 against New England, 65 against Tampa Bay and 81 against Cincy).
I’ll back Kincaid to keep it going on Monday night.
