We're going big with our Broncos vs. Bills PrizePicks plays, which feature two picks for players to exceed their totals on Monday night. Use the PrizePicks Quickslips below to be directed straight to the app so you can make your pick.
Jaleel McLaughlin
Less Than 6.5 Receiving Yards
McLaughlin’s snap percentage has gone down to 17% and 11% over the past two weeks with a healthy Broncos backfield. Samaje Perine has registered 25% and 24% of snaps, while Javonte Williams has taken over tight season highs in 53% and 63%.
McLaughlin has registered less than 6.5 receiving yards in each of those two games. His role has decreased with Williams healthy enough to handle all the work he can on early downs and Perine back on third-down duty.
The three times McLaughlin went above 6.5 receiving yards were from Weeks 4-6. Williams left Week 4 early due to injury and missed Week 5, then he only played 35% of snaps in Week 6 when he returned.
If this game becomes a blowout in Buffalo’s favor, Denver may abandon the run game and put this one in danger. The Broncos defense has been playing well enough and the Bills are struggling enough, though, that I’m confident McLaughlin’s role will be minimal.
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Gabe Davis
More Than 38.5 Receiving Yards
Davis is projected by expert Sean Koerner for 42.6 receiving yards, and there’s upside for more given the matchup and his big-play ability.
As Anytime Touchdown expert Gilles Gallant pointed out, the Broncos entered Week 10 last in the DVOA against opposing WR2s. They have Patrick Surtain to cover the WR1, which is Stefon Diggs for Buffalo, but struggle to contain the rest of the receiving corps.
Also, Davis thrives when playing at home. He has registered more than 38.5 receiving yards in four of the Bills’ five home games this season (one over he got more than 38.5 yards was in London, for the record), and the one he didn’t was the uninspiring 14-9 win over the Giants. Even taking that 21-yard performance into account, Davis is averaging 72.2 receiving yards per game when playing in Orchard Park.
