PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Rashaad Penny Rush Attempts
| Prop | Rashaad Penny Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-130) |
| Matchup | Broncos vs. Seahawks |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
The focus for this game will be on the quarterbacks, with Russell Wilson coming back to Seattle as a member of the Broncos and Geno Smith taking over as QB1 for the Seahawks. Smith won the camp battle over Drew Lock, but what’s clear is that Seattle has significantly downgraded at the position.
Pete Carroll has always been a proponent of the run game, and he likely leans on Rashaad Penny offensively. The 2018 first-round pick's first three seasons in the NFL have been marred by injury. But he finished last season as the starting running back, putting up an average line of 134 rushing yards on 18.4 carries over his five starts.
In Smith’s three starts last season, Seattle’s run play percentage stood at 47%, which would have ranked sixth in the league (overall, the Seahawks were at 43% — 13th). With the long-time backup quarterback more of a game manager than playmaker, the Seahawks should be one of the more run-heavy teams in 2022.
Rookie running back Kenneth Walker is currently listed as questionable, as he’s battled a hernia injury that’s kept him out most of the preseason. While he’s likely to factor into the gameplan down the line, I don’t see much of a role for him in Week 1, if he plays.
With the Broncos profiling as a below-average run defense (rating 21st in Football Outsider’s DVOA last season), I have Penny pounding the rock plenty tonight.
This is playable up to -140.
Quandre Diggs Tackles and Assists
| Prop | Quandre Diggs Over 4.5 Tackles and Assists (-114) |
| Matchup | Broncos vs. Seahawks |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Playing alongside the enigma that is Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs remains of the more underrated safeties in football. Last season, Diggs set a career high with 94 combined tackles, eclipsing this line in 11 of 17 games. And he rarely came off the field, playing at least 90% of the defensive snaps in 16 of 17 games.
When playing alongside Adams, Diggs went over this line in 9 of 11 games, averaging more than 6 combined tackles per contest. Adams will be used closer to the line of scrimmage, with Diggs manning the back end.
And that’s why I’m high on Diggs today. The Broncos' offensive scheme is expected to be a hybrid of the West Coast offense — which new head coach Nathaniel Hackett brings over from Green Bay — and the downfield passing game, a staple of Russell Wilson.
In fact, opposing free safeties topped this line in 13 of 16 games last season in Green Bay with Hackett running the offense (excluding the game Aaron Rodgers missed). Even with a scheme change on Seattle’s defense, Diggs remains one of the few playmakers, and I expect him to be busy.
This is playable up to -125.
