Buccaneers vs Bills Player Props: Picks for Dalton Kincaid, Rachaad White, Khalil Shakir
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Buccaneers vs. Bills
Rachaad White
Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
If you drafted Rachaad White in fantasy, it’s likely that you’re not pleased with your decision.
He’s scored just once and he’s looked poor on the ground. Through six games, he’s averaged 3.2 yards per carry. He enters Thursday Night Football coming off a terrible performance against the Falcons in which he put up 34 rushing yards on 13 attempts.
It was notable that the Bucs turned to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for some carries, but in truth, he’s not the answer either. White isn’t overly dynamic or gamebreaking, and with the Bills 8.5-point favorites, the game script should mean the Bucs move away from the run.
White’s rushing yards line sits at 47.5, a number he’s topped only twice this season. Despite the Bills being relatively weak against the run, I don’t see him being used enough to hit the over.
Pick: Rachaad White Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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Buccaneers vs. Bills
Rachaad White
Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
While White has been a letdown on the ground, he has looked more impressive in the passing game. His line for receiving yards sits at 21.5, a number he’s exceeded in four of six games.
Only five teams have allowed more receiving yards to running backs this season than the Bills — that should give White a good chance to hit the over as a key part of the Bucs’ passing attack.
Pick: Rachaad White Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Buccaneers vs. Bills
Dalton Kincaid
Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Buccaneers have been good against tight ends this season, allowing just 269 yards through six games to the position. That said, I am really confident in Dalton Kincaid going over his line of 39.5 yards.
Kincaid was drafted 25th overall in this year’s NFL Draft after the Bills fell in love with his size and athleticism. He picked up a concussion against the Jaguars and missed Week 6, but in his return last week, he had eight targets, hauling all of them in for 75 yards. That was his best game of the season in terms of targets, receptions and yards.
I expect Kincaid's increased usage to carry over into Thursday Night Football, especially with Dawson Knox ruled out. Knox has 28 targets this season — they’ll need to go somewhere else in his absence.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
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Buccaneers vs. Bills
Dalton Kincaid
Anytime Touchdown (+260)
Let’s get the negatives out of the way first.
Kincaid has yet to score and now he finds himself up against one of the five teams in the league that's yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end.
OK, with the cons of this pick out of the way, let’s look at why Kincaid will find the end zone.
First, he isn’t a traditional TE and he has spent a lot of time this season lining up in the slot. As I mentioned above, he's coming off the best game of his young career and now he doesn't have to compete with Knox for targets. Kincaid is a big-body pass-catcher and the time has come to break his scoring drought.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+260)
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Buccaneers vs. Bills
Khalil Shakir
Anytime Touchdown (+850)
In the shadow of Kincaid's breakout game in Week 7, Khalil Shakir had a season-high four targets and caught all of them, matching his season total up to that point. He ran 20 routes with his previous high this season being seven.
We will see more of Shakir in the slot against the Bucs, and at odds of +850, I think his Anytime Touchdown prop is worth a small sprinkle.
