Our Buccaneers-Bills same-game parlay is using picks from our experts that all correlate for this week's Thursday Night Football matchup. There's one familiar name in a couple of these picks, with a rookie Buffalo playmaker seemingly ready to break out with a new opportunity.
Check out our experts' breakdowns for our Bucs-Bills SGP tonight.
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Buccaneers-Bills SGP
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Buccaneers vs. Bills
Bucs-Bills
Over 43.5 (-110)
By Sean Koerner
Both defenses are due for regression, as I highlighted above. That has a lot to do with why this game also has the second-highest luck total rating of the week at +6.8. It’s a metric that indicates we should expect scoring to be a bit higher for these teams going forward.
This game could also feature a higher rate of kickoff returns. Both Jake Camarda and Tyler Bass have allowed a top-nine kickoff return rate this season. Kickoff returns can inject a bit of variance — like a long return, or a turnover that puts the other team in instant scoring position — that helps the over.
Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin are both questionable, but considering they returned to log a full practice on Wednesday, they seem likely to suit up. Vita Vea missed another practice — his third straight DNP — and seems to be in danger of sitting out.
I got the over at 42.5 on Wednesday night, expecting it to climb after a favorite injury report on Wednesday regarding Mayfield and Godwin. I'd say the over at 43.5 is more of a lean for me, although this matchup is more conducive to that than the under.
Pick: Bucs-Bills Over 43.5 (-110)
Dalton Kincaid
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
By Sam Farley
The Buccaneers have been good against tight ends this season, allowing just 269 yards through six games to the position. That said, I am really confident in Dalton Kincaid going over his line of 39.5 yards.
Kincaid was drafted 25th overall in this year’s NFL Draft after the Bills fell in love with his size and athleticism. He picked up a concussion against the Jaguars and missed Week 6, but in his return last week, he had eight targets, hauling all of them in for 75 yards. That was his best game of the season in terms of targets, receptions and yards.
I expect Kincaid's increased usage to carry over into Thursday Night Football, especially with Dawson Knox ruled out. Knox has 28 targets this season — they’ll need to go somewhere else in his absence.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
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Dalton Kincaid
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
The rookie's yet to log a touchdown this season, but that could change on Thursday Night Football for one simple reason: he's the only Bills tight end left standing.
With Dawson Knox and Quintin Morris out, that means Kincaid will get the lion's share of snaps. The volume should be there — Kincaid had eight targets last week and he's third on the team in targets per game.
The Bucs have allowed the eighth-most targets to tight ends this season, with the weakest part of their defense being over the middle of the field.
The Golden Rule last season was that we auto-bet Knox whenever he had odds of +200 or better. With Knox out of the picture, the torch has been passed to Kincaid
