Patriots vs Bills Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | -390 |
Patriots vs. Bills odds have Buffalo laying more than a touchdown in NFL Week 7, which makes sense given New England's rough start to the season.
The market still has immense respect for the Bills, who are laying 7.5 points despite a rough performance last week against the Giants. The game total sat steadily at 40 points for most of the week before going up to 41 on Sunday morning.
Can the Patriots avoid a new low? Let's break it down and make our Patriots vs. Bills pick.
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Patriots vs. Bills
Matchup Analysis
Buffalo has lost multiple key defensive pieces in the last month, one at each level from Matt Milano to Tre’Davious White to DaQuan Jones.
The Bills entered the season with one of the more underrated defenses and it's why they were my AFC favorites, but the injured players are too important for this defense to easily overcome. Even though the Giants only managed nine points on Sunday, the underlying drive stats show an offense that was quite functional despite all of their issues.
The Giants had 10 drives with a completely makeshift offensive line and a second-string quarterback. They gained at least 30 yards on six of those drives — five of them entered Buffalo territory. The Giants made some poor red-zone decisions but easily could have scored 20 points. Brian Daboll decided to kick a field goal on fourth and inches from the 10 and they botched two goal-to-go conversions at the end of each half.
There are major holes in the Bills' defensive coverage unit now, and while the Patriots may not be the ideal team to exploit that, it certainly makes Buffalo overvalued overall.
If Taylor and the Giants can move the ball, then I have optimism New England can too.
Bet Patriots vs. Bills at FanDuel
There's a lot of small sample variance in turnover luck, and the Patriots have had none of it this season.
They've fumbled four times and recovered none of them. Patriots opponents have fumbled six times; the Patriots defense has only recovered one of them. Mac Jones has been turnover prone, but he's been unlucky in the sense that so many of them have directly resulted in touchdowns. The Patriots have had a fumble six and three interception return touchdowns against them in six games.
Those extreme high-leverage turnovers have resulted in the Pats getting down big and becoming one dimensional early in games. It's no coincidence that the offense actually moved the ball consistently against Las Vegas last week because they didn't have to exclusively throw the ball playing from down double digits all game.
The Patriots defense is playing without their top corner (Christian Gonzalez) and pass rusher (Matthew Judon) due to injuries, but the unit has been solid overall despite facing a quality schedule of quarterbacks.
It's still a Bill Belichick team and while the offense and special teams are a disaster, you can still count on him for a solid defensive output. The Patriots have the fourth-lowest success rate allowed despite playing Philly, Dallas and Miami.
New England can force Buffalo to be one dimensional because its run defense is elite, ranking second in success rate allowed. Once doing so, the Patriots rank No. 1 in yards allowed against the opponent’s top WR. That could be key to slowing down a Stefon Diggs-reliant offensive approach from the Bills.
Patriots vs. Bills
Betting Picks & Predictions
In the opening week of the season, the Eagles were -4 in Foxboro. Even if you downgrade the Patriots a bunch — they had the lowest win total in the AFC East coming into the season — this line getting all the way to nine sets up a classic buy at the floor opportunity.
The Bills defense is more vulnerable than people realize and the Patriots defense is still quite capable.
I'd bet New England at +8 or better.
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