The Buffalo Bills (3-0) and Baltimore Ravens (1-2) will face off tonight on NFL Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on platforms like Peacock and YouTube TV.
The Ravens are consensus 2.5-point favorites, while the game total is set at 46.5 points. The Ravens are -135 favorites on the moneyline, and Buffalo is +115 to pull off the upset. Baltimore opened as a 3-point favorite but was quickly bet down to 2.5, while the total has moved down one point from 47.5.
Josh Allen has played like an MVP so far this season, completing 75% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and no interceptions while running in 2 more scores himself. He'll face off against the reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson, who's off to a strong start this season, averaging 234 passing yards per game and a 95.7 quarterback rating.
In injury news, Ravens starting left guard Andrew Vorhees has been ruled inactive after being listed as doubtful.
Let's get into my Bills vs. Ravens predictions and my NFL picks for Week 4 Sunday.
Bills vs. Ravens Expert Picks
Spread
This is my favorite bet of Week 4. It's a classic John Harbaugh spot at home in primetime in need of a win against an undefeated team. I've seen this movie before. It also doesn't hurt that Buffalo is hitting the road on a short week. I'm on Ravens -2.5.
Moneyline
I'm not betting the moneyline for this game.
Total
I'm in line with this game total.
Prediction
My Pick: Ravens -2.5
Bills vs. Ravens Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
- Bills vs. Ravens Spread: Ravens -2.5
- Bills vs. Ravens Over/Under: 46.5 points scored
- Bills vs. Ravens Moneyline: Ravens -135, Bills +115
- Bills vs. Ravens Best Bet: Ravens -2.5
- 72% of bets and 74% of the money are on the Bills to cover the spread.
- 69% of bets and 74% of the money are on the over.
My Ravens vs. Bills best bet is on Baltimore. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football Week 4
It's Josh Allen MVP season and the Bills are winning the AFC. Maybe both end up coming to fruition, but those are usually sell signs in the NFL market.
I've loved what Allen has done by playing within the structure of this Bills offense. He has solid protection with versatile and underrated weapons. The defensive line can wreak havoc on a game, especially with Von Miller returning to form, and the cornerbacks are excellent in Sean McDermott's zone-heavy scheme.
With that said, Buffalo has played Arizona, Miami and Jacksonville, a trio of teams with one combined win not against each other, which came when the Cardinals beat a bunch of Rams backups. Those are three of the worst defenses in the league at the moment, so I do still have some questions about the Bills offensive line, which will be tested here.
I also anticipate that new defensive coordinator Zach Orr will go very zone-heavy here, which is a requirement against Allen. I had my doubts about Orr's adaptability as Mike Macdonald's replacement, but I was very impressed last week against Dallas Orr went with more dime looks with Ar'Darius Washington manning the slot and thriving even against CeeDee Lamb.
That did a few things for this defense, which I think will translate well in this particular matchup:
- It took a linebacker off the field, which helped address some of the coverage issues over the middle of the field in the first two weeks.
- Washington has the skill set to at least run with Khalil Shakir, who not enough people know about at the moment.
- Kyle Hamilton can be used either as a safety or in the dime role to maximize his talent.
Buffalo has been more run-heavy overall under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but that may not work against a Ravens defense that has dominated the run. Baltimore ranks No. 2 in EPA per Rush Allowed and No. 1 in Success Rate at 21.2%, eight percentage points lower than the second-best rate.
The Ravens have given up too many big plays through the air, but I believe in this talented secondary, especially if it plays more dime. The outside corners should have favorable matchups here, and some underlying pass defense data suggests potential takeaways on the horizon.
Offensively, the Ravens can attack the Bills' biggest defensive weakness with an effective run game and the ability to attack the intermediary and middle parts of the field. The Bills are pretty weak at safety, and they'll also be playing with two backup linebackers and without All-Pro nickel corner Taron Johnson. Buffalo has faced two dysfunctional offenses without any tight end threat over the past two weeks. That won't be the case this week.
As I mentioned earlier, Buffalo is also a zone-heavy defense in their nickel base with a heavy focus on taking away the explosive play. Well, that's not ideal against Lamar Jackson, who does his best work through the air against zone.
The Ravens offensive line was my biggest worry coming into the season. There have been some growing pains in replacing three starters, but this unit had its best game last week in Dallas. I'd expect that unit to continue to improve, although left guard with Andrew Vorhees listed as doubtful. That's worth monitoring since this uber-talented Buffalo defensive line can cause enough havoc to throw a wrench in Baltimore's offensive game plan.
Much has been made of the Ravens blowing leads, but the issues have been more fluky this year, although I do still have my concerns about the special teams, which I haven't said in 15 years under Harbaugh. The Ravens have been the unluckiest team in the NFL at a net-negative 16 penalties and over 200 net-negative yards. Harbaugh came out and subtly called out the league in a professional manner that won't get him fined, so don't be surprised if the Ravens get a few extra calls on Sunday night at home.
Baltimore still out-gained Las Vegas by over 120 yards with almost two more net yards per play, and it was up 28-6 after three quarters against the Cowboys. The Ravens are a few plays away from being 3-0. If they boasted an undefeated record, this line would not be under a field goal, so I'm rolling with a team that I think has favorable edges on both sides of the ball and finds itself in a good situational spot.
If you're into trends, here's two of many that point to this being a difficult spot for the Bills:
- Historically, 3-0 straight-up (SU) teams as underdogs in week 4 have hit at a 37% against the spread (ATS) clip.
- Only six 1-2 teams have been favored against a 3-0 team over the past 20 years. They have gone 5-1 ATS, covering by over 10 points per game..
- Since 2003, teams coming off a 35-plus point victory have gone 37-55-4 (40.2%) ATS the following week.
- As a favorite of less than 3 or an underdog, Lamar Jackson has gone 17-2 ATS (89.5%) in the regular season.
I personally played the moneyline at -130 and will be adding some at -2.5. Let's just hope Allen isn't on one since he's capable of carrying his team to a victory against anybody on any given night (as is Jackson). It should be a great one.
Pick: Ravens -2.5
How to Watch NFL Tonight: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC / Peacock |
Bills vs. Ravens is scheduled for a 8:20 p.m. ET start time, live from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD, on Sunday night. The game is broadcasted live by NBC and is streaming on Peacock.
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