The Buffalo Bills (3-1) and Houston Texans (3-1) will kick off the Sunday afternoon slate of NFL Week 5. Kickoff is set for 1. p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston on CBS, and the game can be streamed on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
The Texans are consensus 1-point favorites over the Bills (Texans -1) after the spread opened at Texans -1.5 before the season. The over/under is 47.5 points scored after opening at 48. The Texans are -120 favorites to win outright, with the Bills are +100 to pull off the slight upset.
The Bills lost 35-10 to the Ravens last week, their first defeat of the season. Josh Allen is still an MVP frontrunner with 9 touchdowns (7 passing and 2 rushing) and 0 interceptions through four games. The Texans won 24-20 over the Jaguars last week. C.J. Stroud bounced back with a solid game and has thrown for 1.054 yards and 6 touchdowns through four games this season.
Let's get into my Bills vs. Texans predictions and my NFL picks for Week 5.
Bills vs. Texans Picks, Prediction
Spread
While this may seem like a good spot for Buffalo to bounce back, I'm backing Houston at home.
Moneyline
I'm going to keep my bet on the spread, but I'd understand a pick on the Texans moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm in line with the game total for this one.
My Pick: Texans -1
Bills vs. Texans Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 47.5 -110 / -110 | +100 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 47.5 -110 / -110 | -120 |
- Bills vs. Texans Spread: Texans -1
- Bills vs. Texans Over/Under: 47 points
- Bills vs. Texans Moneyline: Texans -120, Bills +100
- Bills vs. Texans Best Bet:Texans -1
- 49% of bets and 64% of the money are on the Bills to cover the spread.
- 80% of bets and 87% of the money are on the over.
My Texans vs. Bills best bet is on Houston. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs. Texans NFL Week 5
When I first started on this game, I thought I’d land on a bounce-back spot for the Bills. The Texans haven’t quite been right so far this season either. The more I dive into the matchup, though, I think Houston has an edge and shouldn’t be a home underdog.
Yes, the Texans offense hasn’t looked right and committed a lot of stupid penalties. This is a good get-right matchup potentially, though.
Even if Tank Dell is out, C.J. Stroud will still have Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs to attack what I believe is a vulnerable group of Bills safeties. With Taylor Rapp in concussion protocol, it looks like it will be Damar Hamlin and Cole Bishop back there for the Bills this week.
Also, the Texans offense hasn’t been totally awful. Houston has outgained its opponent in every game this season, even its blowout loss in Week 3 at Minnesota. The Bills, meanwhile, have only done that twice in four games.
On the other side of the matchup, I think this sets up well for the Texans defense.
We know what the Bills offense wants to do: run the ball. That has been the staple of offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s play-calling since he took over in the middle of last season. Well, the Texans have a top-five run defense in terms of DVOA and adjusted line yards.
Houston’s offense can also help by getting Buffalo out of its comfort zone. If the Texans are able to take an early lead, they can force the Bills into a more pass-heavy game script than Brady would like.
Also, Stroud has been a lot better playing at home for whatever reason. He’s 8-2 as a starter at home and 4-5 on the road. Stroud is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt at home. Those numbers go down to 7.3 and 7.5 on the road. He’s kind of just like your average, everyday Kirk Cousins on the road, but he turns into C.J. Stroud at home.
Pick: Texans -1
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | NRG Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS / Paramount + and YouTube TV |
Texans vs. Bills is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET start time, live from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX, on Sunday, Oct. 6. The game is broadcasted live by CBS and is streaming on Paramount + and YouTube TV.
NFL Weather
